经济增长、人民币汇率与国际收支的动态关联性分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 20:17

本文选题：经济增长 + 人民币汇率　；参考：《统计与决策》2017年09期

【摘要】：文章应用基于MCMC模拟的TVP-VAR-SV模型分析了中国2000年第一季度至2015年第三季度间经济增长、人民币汇率以及国际收支之间的动态关联性。主要结论如下:首先,中国汇率和国际收支冲击对经济增长产生了越来越严重的负面影响,特别是2007年之后影响加大,是中国经济进入新常态的重要原因;其次,经济增长冲击可以解释样本时段内人民币汇率的升值趋势,说明人民币汇率升值受我国经济基本面的影响明显,但是国际收支冲击对汇率波动的影响与传统的理论结论并不一致;最后,中国经济增长冲击可以解释样本时段内国际收支长期的"双顺差",而汇率冲击会使得国际收支出现逆差。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the dynamic correlation among China's economic growth, RMB exchange rate and balance of payments from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2015 by using the TVP-VAR-SV model based on MCMC simulation. The main conclusions are as follows: first, China's exchange rate and international balance of payments shocks have more and more serious negative impact on economic growth, especially after 2007, which is an important reason for China's economy to enter the new normal. The impact of economic growth can explain the appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate in the sample period, indicating that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is obviously influenced by the economic fundamentals of our country. However, the impact of balance-of-payments shocks on exchange rate fluctuations is inconsistent with traditional theoretical conclusions. China's economic growth shock can explain the long-term "double surplus" of the international balance of payments in the sample period, while the exchange rate shock will cause the balance of payments deficit.
【作者单位】：苏州大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13CJL030) 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2012EJL001)
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.6

【相似文献】