中日韩货币合作的最优货币区指数分析

发布时间：2018-05-10 17:17

本文选题：金融危机 + 货币合作　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球金融危机后,由于美国大量发行货币来拯救经济,使得美元持续贬值。美元大幅贬值导致各国持有的美元储备严重缩水,这使得各国的经济受到了严重冲击。要改变当前局势,国际上的首要选择是让欧元成为与美元并驾齐驱的货币。但是受欧债危机的影响,欧元也逐渐陷入危机,国际上转而把目光聚焦在人民币上,这与人民币国际化战略不谋而合。对于人民币而言,人民币国际化的首要任务是实现人民币区域化,而人民币区域化可以通过区域货币合作来实现。蒙代尔曾预言未来将会出现美元、亚元和欧元三个稳定的货币区域,但是亚洲需要的是共同货币,而不是单一货币。因此,对中日韩货币合作的可行性研究具有现实意义。在此背景下,本文首先梳理了中日韩三国当前已开展或将要开展的货币合作项目,目前主要包括中日韩货币互换、东亚外汇储备库、中日韩自由贸易区和中日韩货币结算。其中货币互换和东亚外汇储备库已经在运作当中,而自由贸易区及货币结算正处在磋商阶段。本文还发现中日韩货币合作存在着一些问题,如中日韩三国政治互信较低、中日韩三国未能摆脱对美国及美元的依赖、中日韩未能实现货币合作的独立操作、中日韩三国货币没有“领头羊”,这些问题阻碍了中日韩货币合作往深层次发展。尤其是中日韩三国的政治问题,成为中日韩货币合作的最大“绊脚石”。在最优货币区理论的基础上,本文用最优货币区理论中的5个指标作为一级指标,构建了传统最优货币区指标体系,运用这些指标下的二级指标分析了中日韩当前货币合作的可能性与可操作性。通过分析发现,有些指标已经达到了货币合作的标准,这些指标包括产品多样化、通胀一致性和金融一体化;而有些指标尚未达到标准,但是由于“内生性”的作用,这些指标最终会趋于满足货币合作的条件。因此,中日韩进行货币合作的可能性与可操作性较大。在潜在评价指标方面,本文增加了经济规模、贸易强度、相对贸易依存度、资本账户开放度、出口多样化指数和利率相似性等指标。传统指标与潜在指标共同构成了当前的评价体系,这是本文的一个创新点。文中引用评价体系中的产品多样化、经济开放度、通胀一致性和金融一体化指标中的二级指标作为解释变量,然后又增加了国家规模和产出增长率这两个变量,从而构建中日韩三国的最优货币区指数模型,并测算中日韩最优货币区指数。结果表明:中日韩三国的最优货币区指数整体数值较低,且中日双边最优货币区指数远远小于中韩、日韩的双边最优货币区指数;另外,中日韩最优货币区指数与前欧元区的指数相比,差距不大。此外,两次危机对中日韩三国合作的影响各有不同,亚洲金融危机使它们彼此间的货币合作机制得到了加强,双边最优货币区指数呈下降趋势,但全球金融危机使得中日韩三国的双边最优货币区指数在近年来出现了小幅度上升现象。综合来看,由于中日韩三国之间存在政治互信较低等问题,它们要想构建稳定的货币合作体系,仍需要三方共同努力。
[Abstract]:After the global financial crisis, the US dollar has been devalued by a large amount of currency to save the economy. A significant devaluation of the dollar has led to a severe contraction in the dollar reserves held by countries, which has made the economies of all countries suffer serious shocks. To change the current situation, the first choice is to make the euro a currency with the dollar. However, under the influence of the European debt crisis, the euro is also gradually falling into a crisis. The international strategy is focusing on the RMB, which coincides with the internationalization strategy of RMB. For RMB, the primary task of the RMB internationalization is to realize the regionalization of RMB, and the regionalization of RMB can be realized through regional monetary cooperation. I have predicted that there will be three stable currencies in US dollars, Asian dollars and euro, but Asia needs common currency rather than single currency. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the feasibility of currency cooperation between China, Japan and Japan. In this context, this paper first combed the currency that China and Japan, Japan and South Korea have developed or will carry out. The cooperation projects mainly include the currency swap between China, Japan and Japan, the East Asian foreign exchange reserve, China Japan Japan Japan free trade area and the currency settlement of China Japan and South Korea. The question, such as the low political mutual trust between the three countries of China, Japan and South Korea, the three countries of China, Japan and South Korea fail to get rid of their dependence on the United States and the United States dollars. China, Japan and South Korea have failed to realize the independent operation of monetary cooperation. The three countries of China, Japan and South Korea have no "leader", which impede the deep development of the Sino ROK monetary cooperation. The biggest "stumbling block" of Japan and South Korea's monetary cooperation. On the basis of the optimal currency area theory, this paper constructs the traditional optimal monetary area index system by using 5 indexes in the optimal currency area theory, and analyzes the possibility and maneuverability of the current monetary cooperation between China, Japan and Korea by using the two level indexes under these indexes. It is found that some indicators have reached the standards of monetary cooperation, such as product diversification, inflation consistency and financial integration, and some indicators have not yet reached the standard, but because of the role of "endogenous", these indicators will eventually tend to meet the conditions of monetary cooperation. Therefore, the possibility of monetary cooperation between China and South Korea and Japan is possible. In terms of potential evaluation, in terms of potential evaluation indicators, this paper increases economic scale, trade intensity, relative trade dependence, capital account openness, export diversification index and interest rate similarity. The traditional index and potential index constitute the current evaluation system. This is an innovation point in this paper. The product diversification, the economic openness, the inflation consistency and the two levels of the financial integration index are the explanatory variables, and then the two variables of the country scale and the output growth rate are added, thus the optimal monetary area index model of the three countries of China, Japan and South Korea is constructed and the index of the optimal currency area of China, Japan and South Korea is calculated. The results show that: The overall value of the best currency area index of Japan and South Korea is low, and the bilateral optimal currency area index of China Japan and Japan is far smaller than that of China, Korea and Japan and South Korea. In addition, the gap between China, Japan and Japan's optimal currency area index is not large compared with the index of the former euro zone. In addition, the impact of the two crisis on the cooperation between China, Japan and Japan is different in Asia. The financial crisis has made the monetary cooperation mechanism between them strengthened and the index of the bilateral optimal currency area declined, but the global financial crisis made the bilateral optimal currency area index of the three countries of China, Japan, Japan, Japan and South Korea rise in a small margin in recent years. In a comprehensive view, there is a low political mutual trust between China, Japan and the ROK. If they want to build a stable monetary cooperation system, they still need three parties to work together.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F821

【参考文献】