高货币化率的非货币化解释

发布时间：2018-05-11 01:10

本文选题：资产选择 + 货币需求　；参考：《国际金融研究》2016年12期

【摘要】：M2/GDP是货币化率的近似指标。在货币化进程已经基本完成且M2/GDP已经超过2时,M2/GDP已经无法近似货币化率。所以,要解释以M2/GDP衡量的高货币化率,反而需要考虑货币化之外的因素。根据货币交易方程,M2/GDP是货币流通速度的倒数。高货币化率的本质是货币流通速度非常低。因此,要解释高货币化率,应该分析经济主体对货币作为一种资产的需求为何这么高,从而导致货币流通速度如此低。本文从弗里德曼的货币需求函数推导出,中国的高货币化率主要是经济快速增长带来的财富积累增加和金融市场不够发达导致投资渠道有限且收益率较低造成的。本文利用数据初步验证了相关假说。本文也进一步推断了货币化率下降的最可能的路径:在货币供给增速不大幅度增加的情况下,随着市场化改革的进程,投资渠道增加,对货币的需求降低,资产价格上涨,居民财富增加,消费增加,从而推动物价和产出逐步上升,M2/GDP缓慢下降。
[Abstract]:M2/GDP is an approximate indicator of monetization rate. After the monetization process has basically been completed and the M2/GDP has exceeded 2% M2 / M2/GDP, the monetization rate can not be approximated. Therefore, to explain the high monetization rate as measured by M2/GDP, factors other than monetization need to be considered. According to the currency trading equation, M 2 / GDP is the reciprocal of the velocity of money circulation. The essence of high monetization rate is that the velocity of money circulation is very low. Therefore, in order to explain the high monetization rate, we should analyze why the demand for money as an asset is so high, which leads to the low velocity of currency circulation. This paper deduces from Friedman's money demand function that the high monetization rate in China is mainly caused by the increase of wealth accumulation brought by rapid economic growth and the underdevelopment of financial market, which results in limited investment channels and low returns. This paper preliminarily verifies the hypothesis with data. This paper also further inferred the most probable path to the decline of monetization rate: with the increase of money supply growth rate, with the process of market-oriented reform, the investment channels increased, the demand for money decreased, and the asset price rose. Residents' wealth and consumption are rising, pushing prices and output to rise and GDP to fall slowly.
【作者单位】：广东外语外贸大学金融学院;中国社科院金融研究所博士后流动站;中国银监会博士后工作站;
【分类号】：F822;F832

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