基于扩展的索洛模型分析储蓄投资转化率对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-05-14 00:35

本文选题：储蓄 + 储蓄投资转化率　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：一个国家的持续进步依赖于经济增长,并且资本在经济发展的过程中扮演着重要的角色。社会资本的聚集方式有很多,但归根结底是来源于储蓄,储蓄在多大程度上能转化为投资制约着一个国家的经济发展水平,如果储蓄能完整有效地转变为投资,经济发展就会达到最好的效果。我国作为一个发展中国家,储蓄率几十年来经历了一个急速增长的过程,达到了很高的水平,但是高的储蓄率并不代表着高的经济增长率。数据表明,我国的资本形成效率较低,即投资者能从金融系统获得的资金不足,实体经济所需的投资资金不能及时从金融系统获取,这会严重影响经济发展。所以,详细研究储蓄转化为投资的机制以此来刺激经济增长显得尤为关键。本文重点研究储蓄投资转化途径和机制,并且侧重于金融方面的间接转化机制,研究储蓄投资转化率对经济增长的积极作用,并且用实证证明了储蓄投资转化率对经济增长有着积极的促进作用,在这之后将储蓄分部门对投资的影响做了实证研究,并且最后结合我国实情写出提高储蓄投资转化率以及促进经济增长的政策建议。本篇文章主要采用文献研究和实证研究两种方法,首先介绍了相关的理论基础,并且在储蓄、投资、储蓄投资转化率、经济增长等相关概念进行界定的基础上,分析了储蓄投资转化机制以及本文需要重点研究的金融间接转化机制。本文主要从资本形成的过程,而非是资本配置的过程来考量储蓄投资转化率,运用到社会融资规模这一概念,接下来引入传统索洛模型,在传统索洛模型中引入储蓄投资转化率这个变量并分析其对人均GDP、人均资本存量和人均消费的影响。利用协整检验、误差修正模型和VAR模型、格兰杰因果关系检验进行储蓄投资转化率对经济增长的实证分析,来验证之前的理论研究。结果表明:储蓄投资转化率会促进我国的经济增长,并且从长期看会有非常明显的促进效用。在这之后对储蓄分部门进行对投资影响的实证研究。最后,侧重从储蓄投资的转化机制方面给出政策建议,包括资本市场中的间接融资、直接融资、提高部门储蓄以及从消费对拉动投资等几个角度来提出提高储蓄投资转化率的政策建议。
[Abstract]:A country's sustained progress depends on economic growth, and capital plays an important role in economic development. There are many ways of collecting social capital, but in the final analysis it comes from savings. The extent to which savings can be converted into investment restricts the level of economic development of a country. If savings can be transformed into investment completely and effectively, Economic development will achieve the best results. As a developing country, China's savings rate has experienced a rapid growth in recent decades, which has reached a very high level, but a high savings rate does not represent a high economic growth rate. The data show that the capital formation efficiency of our country is low, that is, the investors can get insufficient funds from the financial system, and the investment funds needed by the real economy cannot be obtained from the financial system in time, which will seriously affect the economic development. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the mechanism of transforming savings into investment to stimulate economic growth. This paper focuses on the ways and mechanisms of the transformation of savings and investment, and focuses on the indirect transformation mechanism of finance, and studies the positive effect of the conversion rate of savings and investment on economic growth. The paper also proves that the conversion rate of savings and investment has a positive effect on economic growth, and then makes an empirical study on the impact of savings subsector on investment. In the end, some policy suggestions are given to improve the conversion rate of savings and investment and to promote economic growth. This article mainly uses the literature research and the empirical research two kinds of methods, first introduced the correlation theory foundation, and in the savings, the investment, the savings investment conversion rate, the economic growth and so on related concept carries on the definition foundation. This paper analyzes the transformation mechanism of savings and investment and the indirect financial transformation mechanism which needs to be studied in this paper. This paper mainly considers the conversion rate of savings and investment from the process of capital formation, not the process of capital allocation, applies the concept of social financing scale, and then introduces the traditional Solow model. The transformation rate of savings and investment is introduced into the traditional Solow model and its influence on per capita GDP per capita capital stock and consumption is analyzed. Using cointegration test, error correction model and VAR model, Granger causality test, empirical analysis of savings and investment conversion rate on economic growth to verify the previous theoretical research. The results show that the conversion rate of savings and investment will promote the economic growth of our country, and in the long run, it will have a very obvious promoting effect. After this, the paper carries on the empirical research to the savings subsector to the investment influence. Finally, it focuses on giving policy recommendations from the transformation mechanism of savings and investment, including indirect financing in capital markets and direct financing. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the conversion rate of savings and investment from the perspective of increasing departmental savings and promoting investment from the perspective of consumption-to-investment.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.2

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