香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策传导机制影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 09:09

本文选题：香港人民币离岸市场 + 货币政策　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随我国改革开放进程的不断加深,国民经济取得长足进步,中国在世界经济中的主导权与话语权不断提升,尤其是人民币成功入篮特别提款权(SDR),人民币走向国际化的脚步越来越快,积极构建香港离岸人民币金融市场已成为民之所望、大势所趋。通过构建更加灵活及富有弹性的香港人民币离岸市场,有助于扩展人民币在跨境贸易结算使用中所占比重,为人民币国际化道路披荆斩棘。但是,历史经验表明,离岸市场的建设将对货币发行国的货币政策执行效果产生影响,弱化货币政策有效性。如何在加快人民币离岸市场建设的过程中尽量减少其对内地货币政策的不利影响引起了货币当局以及学术界的重视。本文采用理论分析与实证分析并重的方法:理论分析方面分为两个部分。第一部分,主要从货币发行量的角度,将香港流入内地的人民币资金划分为四种用途,将发展香港人民币离岸市场前后的结果进行对比,判断香港人民币离岸市场对内地基础货币供应量的影响大小。第二部分,详尽阐述香港人民币离岸金融中心对境内货币政策影响的传导机制,主要从利率、汇率及其他形式三个维度进行分析。实证分析方面分为三个部分。第一部分选取2011年1月至2016年12月香港人民币存款总额hrd与货币供应量M2的月度数据,运用软件EViews7.2,对其进行统计性描述、平稳性检验、Granger因果检验、建立向量自回归(VAR)模型以及脉冲响应分析。第二部分选取2014年1月2日至2016年11月30日的香港银行间同业拆息利率hibor与上海银行间同业拆息利率shibor隔夜(O/N)日度数据。第三部分选取2016年1月2日至2016年12月31日香港离岸市场人民币即期汇率CNH与内地人民币兑美元即期汇率SPOT日度数据。分析方法同上。通过上述分析,得出香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策执行效果确有冲击但影响不显著的结论,从加快建设香港人民币离岸市场、积极应对冲击角度提出可行性建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's reform and opening up process and the rapid progress of the national economy, China's dominant and discourse power in the world economy has been improved, especially the successful entry of the RMB to the basket of special drawing rights (SDR). The pace of the RMB towards internationalization has become more and more rapid, and the active construction of the offshore RMB financial market in Hongkong has become the people's place. Through the construction of a more flexible and flexible Hongkong RMB offshore market, it is helpful to expand the proportion of RMB in cross-border trade settlement, and for the road to internationalization of RMB. However, historical experience shows that the construction of the offshore market will produce a shadow of the monetary policy implementation effect of the currency issuing countries. How to weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. How to reduce the adverse effects of the RMB offshore market in the process of speeding up the construction of the RMB offshore market has aroused the attention of the monetary authorities and the academia. This paper adopts the method of theoretical analysis and Empirical Analysis: the theoretical analysis is divided into two parts. The first part, mainly from In the perspective of the currency circulation, the RMB capital flows into the mainland of Hongkong are divided into four uses. The results of the offshore RMB offshore market in Hongkong are compared and the impact of the offshore market on the basic money supply in the mainland of Hongkong is judged. The second part is to elaborate on the domestic goods of the RMB offshore financial center of Hongkong. The transmission mechanism of the influence of currency policy is analyzed mainly from three dimensions of interest rate, exchange rate and other forms. The empirical analysis is divided into three parts. The first part selects the monthly data of the total amount of RMB deposit HRD of Hongkong and M2 of money supply from January 2011 to December 2016, and uses soft EViews7.2 to make a statistical description and stability. Test, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive (VAR) model and impulse response analysis. The second part selects January 2, 2014 to November 30, 2016 Hongkong interbank interest rate HIBOR and Shanghai interbank interbank interest rate Shibor overnight (O/N) daily data. The third part selects January 2, 2016 to December 31, 2016 The Hongkong offshore market RMB spot exchange rate CNH and the RMB exchange rate SPOT daily data of the mainland RMB against the dollar. The analysis method is same. Through the above analysis, the conclusion is drawn that the offshore RMB offshore market has an impact on the implementation of the mainland monetary policy but has no significant impact on the implementation of the RMB offshore market in Hongkong. The feasibility proposal of the impact angle is put forward.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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