2017年银行业十大猜想

发布时间：2018-05-26 01:27

本文选题：银行投资 + 银行业改革　；参考：《银行家》2017年02期

【摘要】：银行界流行一句话,叫"年年难过年年过,年年过的还不错"。银行业在过去2016年度过了一段艰难而又成绩斐然的时光,在供给侧改革政策的推动下国家监管层面也出台了一系列促进银行业改革发展的新措施,比如说投贷联动、不良资产处置债转股、地方性银行A股上市"重开闸"、民营银行扩容加速等政策落地,其中一些措施可能是过去政策的延续,而有一些可能是业态新趋势的涌现。从外部来看,全球金融市场进入"特朗普效应"第2季,"未知的未知"仍将是最主要的风险。这种不确定性超越传统的风险对冲范畴。从最外围的风险冲击层来看,商业银行将全方位面对这种黑天鹅风险考验。从内部来看,债务周期赶顶和货币政策转紧,将是银行最值得关注的两大变化,前者制约信贷规模的扩张,后者重构风险传导的结构。如何适应不再下降的利率中枢和不断增加的利率波动环境,将是2017年中国银行业面对的最主要的课题。在已经到来的2017年中国银行业将何去何?行业当中又有哪些趋势值得我们银行从业人员关注?本刊特邀平安证券研究院励雅敏及其团队就此问题,从券商角度做一分析。现与读者分享。
[Abstract]:In the banking world, a popular saying is, "the years are sad and the years are good." The banking sector has had a difficult and successful time in the past 2016, and a series of new measures to promote the reform and development of the banking sector have been introduced at the national regulatory level, driven by supply-side reform policies, such as the joint investment and lending campaign. Some measures may be the continuation of past policies, while some of them may be the emergence of new trends in the form of the local banks'A share listing, and the acceleration of expansion of private banks, and other policies will be brought to the ground, such as the conversion of non-performing assets into shares, the listing of A-shares by local banks, and the acceleration of expansion of private banks. Externally, with global financial markets entering the second quarter of the Trump effect, the unknown will remain the main risk. This uncertainty goes beyond traditional risk hedging. From the most peripheral risk impact layer, commercial banks will face all aspects of this black swan risk test. From the internal point of view, the debt cycle peak and monetary policy tightening will be the two most noteworthy changes for banks. The former restricts the expansion of credit scale, and the latter reconstructs the structure of risk transmission. How to adapt to the declining interest rate center and the increasing interest rate fluctuation environment will be the most important subject for China's banking industry in 2017. Where will China's banking sector go in 2017? What are the trends in the industry that deserve our banking professionals' attention? Pingan Securities Institute invited this issue and its team from the perspective of securities companies to do an analysis. Now share with readers.
【作者单位】：平安证券综合研究所;
【分类号】：F832

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