货币政策对企业现金流风险的影响机制探讨

发布时间：2018-05-28 01:37

本文选题：货币政策 + 产权性质　；参考：《东南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融风暴后,"现金为王"、"现金是企业的血液"等观念再次回归,企业管理人员也更加重视了对企业现金流的管理,尤其是对现金流风险的识别与防范。现金流不仅渗透于企业日常经营的全过程,是企业财务状况的综合表现,更与企业的投融资决策息息相关,其大小及其波动在一定程度上决定着企业的支付能力和抵御风险的能力(赵亦军[1],2014)。因此,识别与防范企业现金流风险具有不可替代的意义。上世纪90年代,中国货币政策体系逐步建立。近年来,为了应对国际金融危机的影响,中央银行频繁调整货币政策以适应新局势的变化。事实上,根据货币政策的机构传导机制,货币政策的作用力会逐步向企业渗透,影响企业日常活动,而这些影响因素最终都会反映在企业现金流风险上。宏观货币政策的变化会影响企业融资渠道和融资规模,而由于资本市场的信息不对称性等金融摩擦的存在,企业的融资能力往往决定了企业的投资决策。宏观货币政策的变化所带来的企业融资、投资等方面的变化最终会给企业的现金流带来较大的波动,影响企业的现金流风险。同时,我国目前正处于社会主义市场经济体制转型阶段,尽管多种所有制经济并存,但在未来一段时期内,国有经济仍然占主导地位,政府对国有企业的眷顾依旧明显。相比于民营企业,国有企业承担着更多的社会和政治功能,在货币政策宽松时期,更容易获得外部贷款,其投资将更频繁、规模将更大,最终企业现金流随之发生较大的波动。因此,产权性质在宏观政策对企业现金流风险的传导机制中起着不可忽视的作用。本文深入分析了宏观货币政策的着眼点,以企业现金流风险为落脚点,对货币政策的作用机理进行了拓展性的探讨。在此基础上,本文将研究样本分为国有企业组和民营企业组,探究针对不同产权性质的企业,货币政策的影响效果有何不同。根据实证结果显示,在货币政策对微观企业现金流风险的影响过程中,企业的债务筹资水平和投资规模扮演着重要的调节作用。具体表现为:在货币政策宽松年份,由于受到大规模融资和投资的影响,企业现金流会出现较大的波动,企业此刻积累了现金流风险。同时本文还发现,由于货币政策的非对称性,货币政策对不同产权性质企业的影响效果呈现不同的特征。具体而言:相对于民营企业,货币政策对国有企业现金流风险的影响效果更为强烈。
[Abstract]:After the financial storm, the concepts of "cash is the king" and "cash is the blood of the enterprise" return again. Enterprise managers pay more attention to the management of cash flow, especially the identification and prevention of cash flow risk. Cash flow not only permeates the whole process of the enterprise's daily operation, but also is the comprehensive performance of the enterprise's financial situation, and is closely related to the enterprise's investment and financing decision. To a certain extent, its size and fluctuation determine the ability to pay and the ability to resist risks. Therefore, it is of irreplaceable significance to identify and prevent the cash flow risk of enterprises. In the 1990 s, China's monetary policy system was gradually established. In recent years, in order to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis, the central bank frequently adjusts monetary policy to adapt to the changes of the new situation. In fact, according to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the force of monetary policy will gradually infiltrate into enterprises and affect the daily activities of enterprises, and these factors will eventually be reflected in the risk of corporate cash flow. The change of macro-monetary policy will affect the financing channel and financing scale of enterprises. However, due to the existence of financial frictions such as information asymmetry in the capital market, the financing ability of enterprises often determines the investment decisions of enterprises. The changes in financing and investment brought about by the change of macro-monetary policy will eventually bring greater fluctuations to the cash flow of the enterprise and affect the cash flow risk of the enterprise. At the same time, our country is in the transition stage of the socialist market economy system at present. Although the multi-ownership economy coexists, the state-owned economy still occupies the leading position in the future period, and the government's favor to the state-owned enterprises is still obvious. Compared with private enterprises, state-owned enterprises undertake more social and political functions. In the period of monetary policy easing, it is easier to obtain external loans, and its investment will be more frequent and its scale will be larger, and the cash flow of enterprises will fluctuate accordingly. Therefore, the nature of property rights plays an important role in the transmission mechanism of corporate cash flow risk. This paper deeply analyzes the starting point of the macro-monetary policy, taking the cash flow risk of the enterprise as the foothold, and probes into the mechanism of the monetary policy's action. On this basis, the research sample is divided into state-owned enterprise group and private enterprise group, to explore the different effects of monetary policy on different enterprises with different property rights. According to the empirical results, the level of debt financing and the scale of investment play an important role in regulating the influence of monetary policy on the cash flow risk of micro enterprises. The concrete manifestation is: in the monetary policy loose year, because of the large-scale financing and the investment influence, the enterprise cash flow will appear the big fluctuation, the enterprise has accumulated the cash flow risk at the moment. At the same time, it is found that due to the asymmetry of monetary policy, the effect of monetary policy on enterprises with different property rights shows different characteristics. Specifically, compared with private enterprises, the effect of monetary policy on cash flow risk of state-owned enterprises is stronger.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F822.0

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