香港离岸市场发展对我国宏观经济的影响研究:兼论上海自贸区人民币离岸市场的构建

发布时间：2018-05-30 05:29

  本文选题：离岸市场 + 宏观经济　； 参考：《世界经济研究》2017年09期

【摘要】：货币国际化过程必然伴随着离岸市场的高度发展,在人民币国际化进程中,香港离岸人民币市场发挥着至关重要的作用;然而,由于我国资本项目未完全开放、人民币非自由兑换货币等原因,离岸人民币与在岸人民币存在极大的套利空间,香港离岸人民币市场反而成为投机资本的集聚地,从而对我国宏观经济和金融秩序造成干扰。构建涵盖香港离岸人民币市场发展、人民币国际化程度、人民币跨境交易、我国宏观经济发展等在内的指标体系,运用FAVAR模型实证研究香港离岸市场发展对我国宏观经济的影响,并据此提出化解香港离岸人民币市场发展负向影响、构建上海自贸区离岸人民币市场、打造香港-上海全球人民币中心的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The process of currency internationalization is bound to be accompanied by the highly developed offshore market. In the process of RMB internationalization, the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong plays a vital role. However, because the capital account of our country is not fully open, There is a great arbitrage space between offshore RMB and onshore RMB due to the non-freely convertible currency of RMB. Instead, the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong becomes the accumulation of speculative capital, which interferes with the macroeconomic and financial order of our country. To set up an index system covering the development of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, the degree of internationalization of the renminbi, cross-border transactions of the renminbi, and the macroeconomic development of our country. This paper empirically studies the impact of the development of offshore market in Hong Kong on China's macro economy by using FAVAR model, and then proposes to resolve the negative impact of the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong and construct the offshore RMB market in Shanghai Free Trade Zone. Policy advice on creating a Hong Kong-Shanghai Global RMB Center.
【作者单位】： 同济大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：2017年度上海市教育委员会科研创新计划人文社会科学重大项目“人民币国际化进程中的货币替代效应与政策选择研究”(项目号:2017-01-07-00-07-E00045)
【分类号】：F832.6
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本文编号：1954106