适应性学习下货币政策规则的收敛性与收敛速度影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-31 22:25

本文选题：适应性学习 + 收敛区域　；参考：《南方经济》2017年07期

【摘要】：适应性学习过程是从有限理性向理性预期均衡收敛的过程,其收敛性和收敛速度是制约货币政策效果的关键因素。文章先夯实了多种货币政策规则的收敛区域,而后通过在区域内综合比较不同规则的福利损失状况,得到公众向理性预期均衡收敛最快的货币政策规则形式,最后探索了影响适应性学习向理性预期均衡收敛速度的原因,结果显示:承诺下预期型最优货币政策规则较其他规则有更快的收敛速度;而公众的数据搜集能力和利用效率,对货币政策目的和预期效果的了解程度以及适应性学习方法等因素是制约适应性学习收敛速度的关键。
[Abstract]:The adaptive learning process is a process of convergence from bounded rationality to rational expectation equilibrium, and its convergence and convergence speed are the key factors restricting the effect of monetary policy. The paper first rammed up the convergence area of various monetary policy rules, and then, by synthetically comparing the welfare losses of different rules in the region, obtained the form of monetary policy rules that the public converges most rapidly to rational expectation equilibrium. Finally, the paper explores the reasons that affect the convergence rate of adaptive learning to rational expectation equilibrium. The results show that the expected optimal monetary policy rules have faster convergence speed than other rules, and the public's data collection ability and utilization efficiency. The degree of understanding of monetary policy objectives and expected effects, as well as adaptive learning methods are the key factors to restrict the convergence speed of adaptive learning.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国潜在经济增长率计算及结构转换路经研究”(项目编号:12&ZD197) 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“包含异质消费者的DSGE框架下的中国房地产调控政策传导机制与仿真研究”(项目编号:71403099)的资助
【分类号】：F822.0

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