张裕公司投资价值分析报告

发布时间：2018-06-03 15:47

本文选题：张裕A + 投资价值分析　；参考：《西南民族大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着全球经济的不断发展,人们的投资理念也愈发变得更加的理性、更加的成熟,通过对股价的长时间观测来反映上市公司的营运发展战略前景,而后运用适当的方法对股票价值进行评估,从而降低盲目投资造成的投资风险。固然近几年来我国对“三公”消费、白酒等的限制使得我国的葡萄酒行业发展减缓,但是同时随着人们生活水平提高,对葡萄酒的关注也越来越多,尤其是80、90后青年人将成为新一代葡萄酒的主力军。正处于产业生命成长期的我国葡萄酒市场对于吸引投资者投资极具竞争力,张裕作为我国葡萄酒行业龙头具有较高的成长潜力和投资潜力;另外,烟台地处我国胶东半岛,依山傍海,四季分明,适合葡萄生长的土壤、光照、湿度等都比较充足,这也就给坐落于烟台的张裕葡萄酒业的发展提供了得天独厚的条件。首先,分析了我国的宏观经济和张裕所处行业的基本情况,主要来了解外部因素对张裕公司的影响;然后通过张裕公司基本情况的分析,了解了公司的运营状况、竞争力优劣势及发展战略等;然后对其财务状况进行更深层的分析,并与同行业的其他上市公司进行对比;最后以它的历史数据为依据,对张裕公司未来三年的财务经营状况进行了盈利预测,然后运用自由现金流量模型、股利贴现模型和市销率、市盈率、市净率估值法从不同的角度对该企业的未来投资价值进行了估值,最终使得张裕A的投资价值区间范围的估计更加客观合理,希望加深广大投资者对张裕公司的认识,帮助投资者更加理性的决策,从而减少投资损失。通过研究本文得出,张裕公司的战略调整效果比较好,张裕A股票的发展比较稳健,仍有较大的潜力,可能会给投资者带来稳定的投资收益,比较值得投资者的关注和投资,建议投资者可以在合理的股价区间内折机买入。但是同时也要提醒投资者“股市有风险,投资需谨慎”,本文所研究的结果仅仅只能作为投资者投资的一个参考,并不能仅仅以此来判断张裕A股未来准确价格,希望投资者谨慎投资。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the global economy, people's investment concept has become more rational and more mature, through the long-term observation of stock prices to reflect the operational development strategy prospects of listed companies. Then the appropriate method is used to evaluate the stock value so as to reduce the investment risk caused by blind investment. Although the restrictions on the consumption of "Sangong" and liquor in China in recent years have slowed down the development of the wine industry in China, at the same time, with the improvement of people's living standards, more and more attention has been paid to wine. In particular, young people after 80, 90 will become the main force of the new generation of wine. The wine market in China, which is in the period of industrial life, is very competitive in attracting investors' investment. Changyu has high growth potential and investment potential as the leading leader of China's wine industry. In addition, Yantai is located on the Jiaodong Peninsula in China. According to the mountains and the sea, the four seasons are distinct, suitable for grape growth soil, light, humidity and so on are more adequate, which is located in Yantai Changyu wine industry to provide unique conditions for the development. First of all, it analyzes the basic situation of China's macro-economy and the industry in which Zhang Yu is located, mainly to understand the influence of external factors on Changyu Company; then, through the analysis of the basic situation of Changyu Company, we understand the operating situation of the company. Competitive advantages and disadvantages and development strategies, etc.; then the financial situation of the deeper analysis, and compared with other listed companies in the industry; finally, based on its historical data, This paper forecasts the profit of Changyu Company in the next three years, then applies free cash flow model, dividend discount model, market sales ratio, price-earnings ratio. The valuation method of price-to-book ratio evaluates the future investment value of the enterprise from different angles, which finally makes the estimation of the range of investment value of Changyu A more objective and reasonable, hoping to deepen the investors' understanding of Changyu Company. Help investors to make more rational decisions, thereby reducing investment losses. Through the study of this paper, it is concluded that the strategic adjustment effect of Changyu Company is relatively good, the development of Changyu A stock is relatively stable, and there is still great potential, which may bring stable investment returns to investors, and it is more worthy of investors' attention and investment. Investors are advised to buy in a reasonable range of prices. But at the same time, investors should also be reminded that "the stock market is at risk and investment should be cautious." the results of this study can only be used as a reference for investors to invest, and can not only be used to judge the exact price of Changyu A shares in the future. Investors are expected to be cautious.
【学位授予单位】：西南民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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