中国汇率政策对货币政策的传导特征研究——数量型抑或价格型

发布时间：2018-06-04 12:57

本文选题：货币政策 + 汇率政策　；参考：《国际经贸探索》2017年10期

【摘要】：文章分析了汇率政策对货币政策的传导机理,在此基础上,选取2005-2015年度的月度数据,对汇率政策对货币政策的传导特征进行了实证检验与敏感度分析,并给出了相关政策建议。研究表明:(1)汇率政策对货币政策的传导效应呈现显著的数量型特征,汇率政策对货币供给量存在显著影响,但汇率政策对利率不存在显著影响。(2)长期来看,汇率政策对货币供给量具有负向影响,货币供给量已成为汇率政策对货币政策传导的重要载体。短期来看,汇率政策对货币供给量具有正向影响,但货币供给量在汇率政策对货币政策传导中的载体功能还是有效的。(3)在纠偏速度层面,汇改前后货币供给量与外汇储备均存在长期正向均衡关系,一旦货币供给量短期内偏离与外汇储备的长期均衡关系,则货币供给量回归到长期均衡状态的反向纠偏速度将从汇改前的0.6528%提升到汇改后的3.3367%,反向纠偏速度提升了5.11倍。在响应速度层面,货币供给量对外汇储备冲击的响应速度从汇改前的第10期达到最大响应值提前到汇改后的第6期达到最大响应值,响应速度提高了66.67%。可见,汇改前后中国汇率政策对货币政策的传导敏感度出现大幅提升,足以说明中国实施人民币汇率形成机制改革已取得很大成效。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of exchange rate policy to monetary policy. On this basis, we select the monthly data of 2005-2015 year, make an empirical test and sensitivity analysis on the exchange rate policy transmission characteristics to monetary policy, and give some relevant policy suggestions. (1) the study shows that the exchange rate policy has a remarkable transmission effect on monetary policy. The exchange rate policy has a significant influence on the money supply, but the exchange rate policy has no significant influence on the interest rate. (2) in the long run, the exchange rate policy has a negative impact on the money supply, and the money supply has become the important carrier of the exchange rate policy transmission to the monetary policy. In the short term, the exchange rate policy is used to measure the money supply. There is a positive effect, but the amount of money supply is still effective in the transmission of currency policy on the transmission of monetary policy. (3) at the angle of correction, there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between the amount of money supply and the foreign exchange reserve before and after the reform, and the amount of money supply returns once the supply of money is deviated from the long-term equilibrium of the foreign exchange reserve. In the long-term equilibrium, the reverse correction speed will be increased from 0.6528% before the remittance change to 3.3367% after the remittance, and the reverse correction speed is raised by 5.11 times. At the response speed level, the response speed of the money supply to the foreign exchange reserve impact is from the maximum response of the tenth phase before the remittance to the maximum response to the sixth phase after the remittance. The response speed has been improved by 66.67%., and the sensitivity of China's exchange rate policy to monetary policy has been greatly enhanced before and after the reform. It is sufficient to show that China has achieved great success in the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.
【作者单位】：东华大学旭日工商管理学院;东华大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AJL008);国家社会科学基金一般项目(13BGL041) 教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJC790051)
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.6

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