NY银行不良资产现状及对策建议

发布时间：2018-06-07 11:09

本文选题：NY银行 + 风险现状　；参考：《上海国家会计学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年,我国商业银行不良资产规模及不良贷款率呈现快速上升的趋势,而不良贷款拨备覆盖率在逐年下滑,并逼近监管层要求的最低水平。现阶段,如何防范及化解不良资产增加引发的风险是商业银行经营管理中的重要任务。由于我国商业银行利润主要来源为贷款业务,且银行发放的贷款和垫款规模占总资产规模的一半以上,故本文所讨论的不良资产是指商业银行的不良贷款。本文选取NY银行作为研究对象,主要考虑到它的不良资产问题在规模相近的银行里较为突出。通过分析NY银行的不良资产现状,有利于该行发现自身存在的缺陷,并提高不良资产的风险管控水平。2013年末,NY银行不良贷款率仅为1.22%,但2016年末已快速攀升到2.37%。随着不良资产增量规模的大幅上升,NY银行要在资产负债表和利润表分别计提更多的资产减值准备金及资产减值损失,进而对NY银行的净利润产生负面影响,并最终可能引起资本充足率不足问题。在案例分析部分,本文主要基于不良资产风险传导路径来逐步剖析NY银行不良资产引发的风险问题。首先,本文研究了NY银行不良资产风险水平情况,分别从贷款五级分类比重变动、贷款行业分布变动、贷款地区分布变动、单笔贷款集中度变动以及基层不良贷款案例等方面分析了当前的风险概况。其次,本文分析了NY银行不良资产风险迁徙情况,重点研究了关注类贷款迁徙率变动趋势以及逾期贷款存在的风险迁徙隐患。再次,本文研究了NY银行不良资产风险抵御情况,分别从不良贷款拨备计提比例变动、不良贷款核销比例变动、净利润增速变动、资本充足率变动等方面分析了NY银行应对不良贷款风险能力的变动。最后,基于上述分析,本文定量地预测了NY银行不良资产在未来两年变动趋势,并测算了不良资产变动对NY银行净利润以及资本充足率的影响。测算结果显示,NY银行的资本准备金在未来可能出现一定的缺口。在不良资产管理对策建议方面,本文借鉴了商业银行全面风险管理的思想,建议NY银行要在未来拓展外部融资规模、调整信贷投放结构、优化收入方式、提高基层人员素质、引入大数据监控等。并且,对NY银行提出的不良资产风险管理思路和部分措施也可以应用在其它商业银行中。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of non-performing assets and the ratio of non-performing loans of commercial banks in China are rising rapidly, while the coverage rate of provision for non-performing loans is declining year by year, which is close to the lowest level required by regulators. At present, how to prevent and resolve the risks caused by the increase of non-performing assets is an important task in the management of commercial banks. Since the profits of commercial banks in China mainly come from the loan business, and the loans and advances made by the banks account for more than half of the total assets, the non-performing assets discussed in this paper refer to the non-performing loans of the commercial banks. In this paper, NY Bank is chosen as the research object, mainly considering that its non-performing assets problem is prominent in similar banks. By analyzing the current situation of non-performing assets of NY Bank, it is helpful for the bank to find its own defects and improve the risk control level of non-performing assets. At the end of 2013, the non-performing loan ratio of NY Bank was only 1.22, but it had climbed to 2.37 by the end of 2016. With the large increase in the increment of non-performing assets, NY Bank has to make more impairment reserves and impairment losses in its balance sheet and profit statement respectively, which will have a negative impact on the net profit of NY Bank. And may eventually lead to inadequate capital adequacy. In the case analysis part, this paper mainly analyzes the risk problem caused by NY bank's non-performing assets based on the transmission path of non-performing assets risk. First of all, this paper studies the risk level of non-performing assets in NY Bank, which is divided into five categories: the proportion of loans, the distribution of loan industry, the distribution of loans, and the regional distribution of loans. The current risk profile is analyzed in the aspects of single loan concentration change and grassroots non-performing loan cases. Secondly, this paper analyzes the risk migration of NY bank's non-performing assets, focusing on the trend of migration rate of concern loans and the hidden dangers of risk migration of overdue loans. Thirdly, this paper studies the risk resistance of NY bank's non-performing assets, including the change of the proportion of provision for non-performing loans, the proportion of write-off of non-performing loans, the change of net profit growth rate. This paper analyzes the change of NY Bank's ability to deal with the risk of non-performing loans in terms of the change of capital adequacy ratio. Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper quantitatively predicts the trend of non-performing assets of NY Bank in the next two years, and calculates the influence of the change of non-performing assets on the net profit and capital adequacy ratio of NY Bank. The results show that NY Bank's capital reserves in the future may have a certain gap. In the aspect of non-performing assets management countermeasures and suggestions, this paper draws lessons from the idea of comprehensive risk management of commercial banks and suggests that NY Bank should expand the scale of external financing in the future, adjust the structure of credit investment, optimize the way of income, and improve the quality of grass-roots personnel. Introduction of big data monitoring and so on. Moreover, the ideas and some measures proposed by NY Bank can also be applied to other commercial banks.
【学位授予单位】：上海国家会计学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4

【参考文献】