影响跨境贸易人民币结算的因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-08 01:06

本文选题：跨境贸易人民币结算 + 贸易　；参考：《外交学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为人民币国际化最基础和最关键的一步,跨境贸易人民币结算自2009年试点启动以来得到了飞速发展。业务金额从2009年的不到36亿元,大幅跃升到2016年5.32万亿元。其发展对于降低企业汇率风险、改善贸易投资条件和增强国家经济实力等方面都有着重要的意义。“一带一路”战略构想的提出更为跨境贸易人民币结算提供了珍贵的发展机遇。然而不可避免的是,在业务的发展过程中总会面临着一些问题和挑战。本文就是在这样的背景下,探讨跨境贸易人民币结算在当前国内外形势下的业务状况、发展特点以及影响其发展的主要因素,以期推动其发展,进而实现人民币国际化的目标。本文首先分析了跨境贸易人民币结算业务发展呈现的特点,及发展面临的外部环境和内部条件,然后结合国际贸易货币选择理论对影响该项业务的几个因素进行了归纳。在前文理论研究的基础上选取了2010年1月至2016年12月之间的时间序列数据作为样本进行实证分析,采用主成分分析法,得出贸易以及国际经济规模的扩大对业务有着正向促进作用,通货膨胀率与业务额为负相关关系,同时业务的发展与政策的出台有着密切联系。最后根据前文的实证结果,对我国的跨境贸易人民币结算提出相关的发展建议,主要包括:保持宏观经济额定增长、推进离岸人民币市场全球布局、坚持汇率市场化改革以及加强与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作。
[Abstract]:As the most basic and crucial step in RMB internationalization, cross-border trade RMB settlement has developed rapidly since the pilot launch in 2009. The amount of business from less than 3.6 billion yuan in 2009, jumped to 5.32 trillion yuan in 2016. Its development is of great significance in reducing the exchange rate risk, improving the terms of trade and investment and strengthening the national economic strength. The strategic conception of "Belt and Road" provides a precious development opportunity for RMB settlement of cross-border trade. However, inevitably, there are always some problems and challenges in the process of business development. In this context, this paper discusses the business situation, development characteristics and main factors affecting the development of cross-border trade RMB settlement at home and abroad, in order to promote its development and realize the goal of RMB internationalization. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of RMB settlement business in cross-border trade, and the external environment and internal conditions that the development is facing, and then sums up several factors that affect this business in combination with the theory of currency selection in international trade. Based on the previous theoretical research, the time series data from January 2010 to December 2016 are selected as samples for empirical analysis, and principal component analysis (PCA) is used. It is concluded that the expansion of trade and international economy has a positive effect on the business, the inflation rate is negatively related to the business volume, and the development of the business is closely related to the introduction of the policy. Finally, based on the above empirical results, the paper puts forward some relevant suggestions for the RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China, mainly including: maintaining the macroeconomic nominal growth and promoting the global layout of the offshore RMB market. Adhere to the exchange rate market reform and strengthen trade cooperation with countries along the "Belt and Road".
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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