我国国际收支失衡机理分析及对策研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 00:35

本文选题：国际收支失衡 + 机理分析　；参考：《东北师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在当前全球经济一体化的大趋势下,我国的开放程度逐步提高,其中国际收支最能体现国家经济发展状况和对外开放情况。其不仅在外凸显我国的经济实力与国际影响力,而且对内影响着我国经济发展进程和质量,关系到国民收入和生活水平,其重要性不言而喻。作为非国际性货币国家,要保持持续的适度顺差,以获得足够的外汇储备,确保经济安全、货币稳定、抵御外部冲击,所以不能追求绝对的国际收支平衡。同时,开放经济下也并非顺差越多越好、储备越多越好。一旦顺差过度、储备过度,则会引发本币升值,带来其外汇储备缩水、出口价格上涨、输入型通货膨胀等负面影响。因此保持我国国际收支的相对平衡是我国经济发展中重中之重的一环,也是学术界持续研究的热点问题。全文通过文献研究法、数据分析法和理论与实际相结合的方法,同时吸收了国内外的研究成果,以2012年为分割线前后对我国国际收支失衡状况进行逐个研究,对我国国际收支失衡问题进行影响探究和机制分析,讨论出相关的解决对策。本文主要包括以下几个部分:首先对本文的研究背景及研究意义进行了简短的介绍。第一章将国际收支理论及国内外国际收支理论进行整合,简要的了解了当前国际收支的发展现状并着重对其当前形势进行了简单分析梳理。其次分别对1999年至今,从经常账户和资本金融账户维度下的失衡现状进行了分析,在表格和图形中解读这十几年来经常账户和资本金融账户下各子账户的变动情况,对变动幅度较大的项目进行更加仔细的研究,并列举了我国国际收支大额顺差所造成的对国内外的影响。随后对持续多年的“双顺差”形成问题进行归纳整理,并结合近几年出现的资本金融账户逆差的新局势,对引起这种失衡的机理进行分析,引出未来我国面对失衡问题所能解决的相应对策。国际收支反映出一个国家的经济运行状况和对外影响力,是衡量我国经济发展的重要指标。国际收支问题虽是老生常谈,可在当前变幻莫测的国际形势下,能随时调整国际收支政策,保持国际收支均衡有助于焕发我国经济发展的活力,增强我国在国际市场上的竞争力。
[Abstract]:In the current trend of global economic integration, the degree of China's opening up has been gradually improved, among which the balance of payments can best reflect the state of national economic development and opening to the outside world. It not only highlights our country's economic strength and international influence, but also affects the process and quality of our country's economic development, and relates to the national income and living standard, and its importance is self-evident. As a non-international currency country, it is necessary to maintain a sustained and moderate surplus in order to obtain sufficient foreign exchange reserves, ensure economic security, currency stability and withstand external shocks, so it is not possible to pursue absolute balance of payments. At the same time, the open economy is not the more surplus the better, the more reserves the better. If the surplus is excessive and the reserves are excessive, it will lead to the appreciation of the local currency, with negative effects such as shrinking foreign exchange reserves, rising export prices, and imported inflation. Therefore, maintaining the relative balance of international payments is the most important part in the economic development of our country, and it is also a hot issue in the academic circles. Through the methods of literature research, data analysis, theory and practice, and absorbing the domestic and foreign research results, this paper studies the imbalance of China's balance of payments one by one before and after taking 2012 as the dividing line. This paper probes into the influence and mechanism of China's balance of payments imbalance, and discusses the relevant countermeasures. This paper mainly includes the following parts: firstly, the research background and significance of this paper are briefly introduced. The first chapter integrates the theory of balance of payments and the theory of balance of payments at home and abroad, briefly understand the current development of the balance of payments and focus on the current situation of a simple analysis. Secondly, this paper analyzes the current account and capital financial account from the current account and the capital financial account dimension, and explains the changes of the current account and the capital financial account in the past ten years in the tables and graphs. This paper makes a more careful study on the items with a large range of changes and enumerates the effects of the large balance of payments surplus on the domestic and foreign economy. Then, the forming problem of "double surplus" which lasts for many years is summarized and sorted out, and combined with the new situation of capital financial account deficit in recent years, the mechanism of causing this imbalance is analyzed. Lead to the future of our country in the face of imbalance can solve the corresponding countermeasures. The balance of payments reflects a country's economic operation and external influence, and is an important index to measure the economic development of our country. Although the international balance of payments problem is a clich 茅, it can be adjusted at any time in the current unpredictable international situation, and maintaining the balance of international payments will help to coruscate the vitality of China's economic development. Enhance our competitiveness in the international market.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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