俄罗斯汇率制度的演进与卢布汇率危机

发布时间：2018-06-11 16:52

本文选题：卢布汇率 + 资本项目　；参考：《欧亚经济》2016年01期

【摘要】：2014年以来,卢布汇率大幅贬值和剧烈波动引起国际社会广泛关注。资本外逃、通货膨胀、外汇储备下降,俄罗斯经济面临严峻考验。深刻分析卢布贬值的原因:欧美制裁和油价下跌是导火索,经济增长乏力、结构畸形是根本点,开放资本项目是助推器。关联储退出量化宽松政策,美元加息预期不断增强,特别是中国大幅下调人民币中间价后,新兴市场国家和与中国有密切贸易关系的国家货币争先恐后贬值,在经济全球化的今天,发展中国家选择何种汇率制度、资本项目的开放程度等又成为当前研讨的热点问题。中国"十三五"规划建议指出,有序实现人民币资本项目可自由兑换,推动人民币进入特别提款权,成为可自由兑换、可自由使用货币,可见,人民币国际化进程已经开始提速。本刊编辑部特邀请国内专家学者参加讨论,剖析卢布贬值的深层原因,比较中俄两国在经济增长、产业结构、国际储备、本币国际化、汇率制度等方面的差异,评估卢布汇率危机对中国金融改革总体进程的影响,探讨中国如何在逐步推进汇率形成机制市场化的同时,有效防范汇率大幅波动产生的风险。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the rouble exchange rate depreciation and sharp fluctuations caused widespread concern in the international community. Capital flight, inflation, falling foreign exchange reserves, Russia's economy is facing a severe test. Deep analysis of the reasons for the devaluation of the rouble: sanctions in Europe and the United States and falling oil prices are the trigger, economic growth is weak, structural malformation is the root point, and open capital account is the booster. With the withdrawal of the related savings account from quantitative easing, the expectation of a rise in US dollar interest rates is increasing. In particular, emerging market countries and countries with close trade ties with China have been scrambling to devalue after China slashed the central rate of the renminbi. In today's economic globalization, the choice of exchange rate system and the opening degree of capital account in developing countries have become hot issues. China's 13th Five-Year Plan proposal points out that the capital account of the renminbi can be freely convertible in an orderly manner, and that the renminbi will be promoted to enter the Special drawing Rights (SDR), making it freely convertible and freely using its currency. The RMB internationalization process has begun to speed up. Our editorial department specially invited domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion, to analyze the underlying causes of the devaluation of the rouble, and to compare the differences between China and Russia in economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, internationalization of the local currency, exchange rate system, and so on. This paper evaluates the impact of the rouble exchange rate crisis on the overall process of China's financial reform, and probes into how China can effectively guard against the risk of large exchange rate fluctuations while gradually promoting the marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism.
【作者单位】：中央编译局俄罗斯研究中心;
【分类号】：F835.12

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