经济周期与金融周期双重冲击下的世界经济

发布时间：2018-06-12 12:23

本文选题：经济周期 + 金融周期　；参考：《安徽大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年01期

【摘要】：次贷危机发生至今,世界经济和全球贸易仍处于下行长周期中。经济周期的冲击使得世界经济处于通缩风险的压力之下。单纯以需求管理政策应对次贷危机冲击并没有带来全球经济的复苏,反而带来了债务风险的累积。潜在GDP以及劳动生产率下滑是宽松的货币难以进入实体经济的根本原因,货币进入实体经济出现了内生性下降。资本追逐高收益率的属性必然引发过多的货币追逐金融资产,导致债券、股票和不动产等金融资产的价格逐步趋高,全球经济进入资产财富时期。世界经济正在经历通缩风险压力的经济周期和以资产价格"泡沫"等为特征的金融周期的双重冲击。经济周期的非同步性和金融周期的同步性共存,对全球宏观政策的合作与协调提出了严峻考验,全球经济复苏的前景依然面临重大的不确定性。在这种形势下,货币政策要侧重于管理金融周期,稳金融就是稳预期;要利用财政政策和其他结构性政策应对经济潜在产出率的下滑。
[Abstract]:The world economy and global trade are still in a long period of decline since the subprime crisis occurred. The impact of the economic cycle puts the world economy under pressure from the risk of deflation. The demand management policy to deal with the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has not brought about a global economic recovery, but has brought about the accumulation of debt risk. Potential GDP and declining labor productivity are the fundamental reasons for the difficulty for loose money to enter the real economy, and the endogenous decline in the entry of money into the real economy. The property of capital chasing high yield will inevitably lead to too much money chasing financial assets, leading to higher prices of financial assets such as bonds, stocks and real estate, and the global economy has entered the period of asset wealth. The world economy is experiencing a double shock of deflationary risk pressures and financial cycles characterized by asset price bubbles. The coexistence of synchronization of economic cycle and synchronization of financial cycle puts forward a severe test to the cooperation and coordination of global macro policy, and the prospect of global economic recovery still faces great uncertainty. In such a situation, monetary policy should focus on managing the financial cycle. Stabilizing finance means stabilizing expectations. Fiscal policy and other structural policies should be used to cope with the decline in the potential output rate of the economy.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD790022) 中国人民大学宏观经济论坛和世界经济论坛阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F113.7;F831

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