两岸汇率对两岸贸易的影响——后ECFA时代的SVAR分析

发布时间：2018-06-20 21:10

本文选题：两岸汇率 + 两岸贸易　；参考：《台湾研究集刊》2017年01期

【摘要】：由于人民币与新台币之间的套算汇率不能真实有效地反映两岸贸易的变动情况,加之两岸贸易的自由化程度不够等原因,两岸汇率波动对两岸贸易的影响机制表现出了不同于传统理论预期的特征。本文利用SVAR模型分析了后ECFA时代两岸汇率对两岸贸易的影响,结果表明:在长期,两岸汇率与大陆对台湾的出口贸易之间、大陆对台湾的出口贸易与大陆对台湾的进口贸易之间均存在着稳定的相互影响关系;在短期,两岸汇率是两岸贸易的单向Granger原因,两岸汇率的波动会从整体上抑制两岸贸易的发展,且对大陆对台湾出口贸易的抑制作用更加持久。此外,大陆对台湾的出口贸易能有效影响大陆对台湾的进口贸易,而大陆对台湾的进口贸易不能有效影响大陆对台湾的出口贸易。基于此,陆台双方应建立健全两岸汇率稳定机制,进一步推动两岸贸易自由化,逐步将人民币作为两岸贸易的结算货币并适时在台湾建立清算型人民币离岸中心,从而推动两岸经济的长足发展。
[Abstract]:Since the set exchange rate between the RMB and the NT cannot truly and effectively reflect the changes in cross-strait trade and the degree of trade liberalization between the two sides of the strait is not enough, The influence mechanism of exchange rate fluctuation on cross-strait trade is different from the traditional theory. This paper uses SVAR model to analyze the influence of cross-strait exchange rate on cross-strait trade in the post-ECFA era. The results show that: in the long run, between the cross-strait exchange rate and the mainland's export trade to Taiwan, There is a stable interaction between the mainland's export trade to Taiwan and the mainland's import trade to Taiwan. In the short term, the cross-strait exchange rate is the one-way Granger cause of cross-strait trade. The fluctuation of the exchange rate between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will restrain the development of cross-strait trade as a whole, and will exert a more lasting effect on the mainland's export trade to Taiwan. In addition, the mainland's export trade to Taiwan can effectively affect the mainland's import trade to Taiwan, while the mainland's import trade to Taiwan can not effectively affect the mainland's export trade to Taiwan. Based on this, the mainland and Taiwan should establish and improve the cross-strait exchange rate stabilization mechanism, further promote cross-strait trade liberalization, gradually use the renminbi as the settlement currency for cross-strait trade, and set up an offshore clearing center for renminbi in Taiwan in due course. Thus promoting the rapid economic development of the two sides of the strait.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F832.6;F727

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