资本账户开放对人民币国际化“货币锚”地位的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 08:50

本文选题：资本账户 + 开放　；参考：《经济研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：本文基于2001Q1—2015Q1的季度数据,结合利率平价理论、占比法和FH条件,计算了中国实际资本账户开放度,再运用经典的"货币锚"模型在面板数据基础上,分2001Q1—2009Q4与2010Q1—2015Q1两个阶段,讨论了资本账户开放对人民币国际化"货币锚"地位的影响。本文得到了以下几个方面的结论:首先,人民币已经成为全球大多数国家,特别是与中国有密切经济往来国家的隐性"货币锚",进一步开放中国资本账户会强化这一关系。其次,在2010Q1—2015Q1期间,人民币汇率对样本国家货币汇率影响呈现出负向关系。再次,在2001Q1—2015Q1期间,中国名义资本账户与实际资本账户一样,均没有显著变化,中国仍然是一个资本账户高度封闭的国家。实际资本账户曾经在2004—2011年期间,有超过名义资本账户的迹象。最后,尽管中国对实际资本账户开放进程持稳健态度,但资本账户开放速度加快有利于提升人民币隐性"货币锚"地位。
[Abstract]:Based on the quarterly data of 2001Q1-2015Q1, combined with the theory of interest rate parity, the ratio method and the FH condition, this paper calculates the opening degree of China's actual capital account, and then uses the classical "currency anchor" model on the basis of panel data. This paper discusses the influence of capital account opening on the status of currency anchor of RMB internationalization in two stages: 2001Q1-2009Q4 and 2010Q1-2015Q1. This paper draws the following conclusions: first, the RMB has become a "currency anchor" for most countries in the world, especially those with close economic ties with China. Further opening up China's capital account will strengthen this relationship. Secondly, during the period of 2010Q1-2015Q1, the influence of RMB exchange rate on the currency exchange rate of the sample countries showed a negative relationship. Third, during the period 2001 Q1-2015Q1, China's nominal capital account, like the real capital account, did not change significantly, and China remains a highly closed capital account country. There were signs that the actual capital account exceeded the nominal capital account in the period 2004-2011. Finally, despite China's steady approach to the process of opening up its real capital account, a faster pace of opening the capital account would help to raise the yuan's position as a hidden "currency anchor".
【作者单位】：南京财经大学金融学院;复旦大学管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科规划基金项目“人民币国际化进程中的资本账户开放路径系统切换及效应分析”(16XJA790010)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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