化解过剩产能的路径:出口抑或对外直接投资

发布时间：2018-06-30 21:43

本文选题：过剩产能 + 出口　；参考：《财贸经济》2017年09期

【摘要】：如何平稳化解企业过剩产能是经济新常态下我国企业能否实现良性发展所面临的重要现实难题,而出口和对外直接投资则是解决这一问题可供选择的两个重要路径。本文分析了出口与对外直接投资化解过剩产能的内在机制,并基于2007-2015年中国A股上市公司面板数据,比较了出口与对外直接投资对企业化解过剩产能的差异化影响。研究结果显示:提升对外出口水平仍是削减企业过剩产能的主要突破口,而对外直接投资尚未成为企业化解过剩产能的主要路径。虽然出口增加对化解过剩产能存在一定的负向反馈效应,但这一负向作用并没有抵销出口对化解过剩产能的正向作用。尽管从理论上看,对外直接投资与出口相比,更能够化解企业过剩产能,但我国企业对外投资的时间短、总量小,尚未对消化过剩产能产生显著影响。上述结论在使用多个估计方法、替换变量测度方法等分析后仍然是稳健的。本文研究为客观评估出口与对外直接投资对化解过剩产能的影响提供了一个微观层面的经验证据,同时也为进一步合理消化过剩产能提供了有益的路径参考和政策启示。
[Abstract]:How to smooth out the excess capacity of enterprises is an important practical problem for Chinese enterprises to realize healthy development under the new normal state of economy, and export and foreign direct investment are two important ways to solve this problem. Based on the panel data of China A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2015, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of export and foreign direct investment (OFDI) to resolve excess capacity, and compares the differential effects of export and OFDI on enterprises' overcapacity. The results show that increasing the level of export is still the main breakthrough to reduce the excess capacity of enterprises, and foreign direct investment has not become the main way for enterprises to resolve excess capacity. Although the export increase has some negative feedback effect on the solution of excess capacity, but this negative effect does not offset the positive effect of export on the solution of excess capacity. Although in theory foreign direct investment (FDI) is more effective than export in solving the overcapacity of enterprises, the time of Chinese enterprises' foreign investment is short and the total amount is small, which has not yet had a significant impact on the digestion of excess capacity. The above conclusions are still robust after using multiple estimation methods and alternative variable measure methods. This study provides a microcosmic empirical evidence for the objective evaluation of the impact of export and FDI on the solution of excess capacity, and also provides a useful path reference and policy inspiration for further rational digestion of excess capacity.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“出口学习效应促进传统制造业转型升级的机制与政策研究”(14BJL088) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“泛TPP经贸规则下我国融入国际价值链分工战略研究”(16JZD019) 合肥工业大学哲学社会科学培育计划项目“贸易发展模式转型背景下金融比较优势的形成机理与出口效应研究”(JS2017HGXJ0029)
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

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