委内瑞拉超级通货膨胀和经济衰退探源

发布时间：2018-07-03 00:35

  本文选题：委内瑞拉 + 超级通货膨胀　； 参考：《国际经济评论》2017年06期

【摘要】：委内瑞拉经济形势近年来快速恶化,在2016年陷入超级通胀和深度衰退。流行看法是委内瑞拉遭受到"荷兰病"困扰,并受到"异常贸易"的不利冲击。本文的对比分析表明,"荷兰病"理论至多可解释委内瑞拉的经济下行,但无法说明其深度衰退和超级通胀。中美两国与委内瑞拉双边贸易的对比分析也表明,导致委内瑞拉对外贸易出现不利变化的主要因素除了国际油价的下跌外还有其国内经济问题。本文认为,委内瑞拉当前经济问题的根源在于经济政策的偏差,尤其是长期以来追求财政支出扩张和外汇管制。外汇管制导致市场汇率与官方汇率的分离,并在一定条件下促使市场汇率("平行汇率")成为引导委内瑞拉人民汇率预期和通胀预期的重要指示器。当国内经济其他方面在2013年出现不利转变迹象后,市场汇率更加突出地发挥了助推通货膨胀不断升高的作用。通胀高企本身也加重了委内瑞拉的国内经济困难,给政府带来更大的财政压力。委内瑞拉正面临一个两难局面:要么进一步加强管制,要么在国际协助下全面放松,第三条"中间道路"很难行得通。
[Abstract]:Venezuela's economy has deteriorated rapidly in recent years, plunging into hyperinflation and a deep recession in 2016. The prevailing view is that Venezuela suffers from Dutch disease and is adversely affected by abnormal trade. The comparative analysis shows that the Dutch disease theory can explain Venezuela's economic downturn at best, but it does not explain its deep recession and super inflation. A comparative analysis of bilateral trade between China and the United States and Venezuela also shows that the main factors contributing to the adverse changes in Venezuela's foreign trade are not only the fall in international oil prices but also its domestic economic problems. This paper argues that the root of Venezuela's current economic problems lies in the deviation of economic policy, especially the pursuit of fiscal expansion and foreign exchange control for a long time. Foreign exchange control causes the separation of the market exchange rate from the official exchange rate, and under certain conditions makes the market exchange rate ("parallel exchange rate") an important indicator to guide Venezuelan people's expectation of exchange rate and inflation. When the rest of the domestic economy showed signs of a negative shift in 2013, the market exchange rate played a more prominent role in boosting inflation. High inflation itself has exacerbated Venezuela's domestic economic woes, putting greater fiscal pressure on the government. Venezuela faces a dilemma: either further regulation or a general relaxation with international assistance, and a third "middle road" is difficult to work.
【作者单位】： 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【分类号】：F177.4;F827.74
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本文编号：2091578