美国次贷危机后中国省级外贸可持续发展动态演进:一个评估

发布时间：2018-07-16 13:21

【摘要】：通过构建评估指标,采用动态因子分析和二次加权测算,对中国省级外贸可持续发展动态演进进行评估发现:(1)次贷危机后中国省级外贸可持续发展速度呈现显著的差异:重庆、河南和四川年均增速较高;广东、上海、北京、陕西和吉林呈稳定增长;江苏、湖北、浙江等9个省份呈小幅波动态势;其余13个呈下降趋势。(2)危机后东部省份仍是中国外贸发展的核心地区,在外贸规模、竞争力和外贸社会效益上的评估结果明显好于中、西部省份,但在外贸结构、外贸能源效益和环境效益上的优势并不明显,而重庆、四川、河南和陕西凭借后发优势却取得较好的成效。(3)危机前,中国东部省份外贸结构、能源效益和环境效益优于中、西部省份,但危机后东、中西部省份已没有明显差异,且重庆、四川、河南在其上取得了显著的成效。据此,一要充分利用东部省份经济辐射效应大的优势,推进自贸区的扩展效应;二要充分发挥重庆、四川、河南和陕西等外贸发展的示范效应。
[Abstract]:By constructing the evaluation index, using dynamic factor analysis and quadratic weighted measurement, the author evaluates the dynamic evolution of China's provincial foreign trade sustainable development and finds that: (1) after the subprime mortgage crisis, there are significant differences in the sustainable development speed of China's provincial foreign trade: Chongqing, The average annual growth rate of Henan and Sichuan is relatively high; Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, Shaanxi and Jilin show steady growth; Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and other nine provinces show a small fluctuation trend; The other 13 showed a downward trend. (2) after the crisis, the eastern provinces are still the core areas of China's foreign trade development, and the evaluation results of foreign trade scale, competitiveness and social benefits of foreign trade are obviously better than those of the central and western provinces, but in the foreign trade structure, The advantages of foreign trade energy efficiency and environmental benefit are not obvious, but Chongqing, Sichuan, Henan and Shaanxi have achieved good results by virtue of their latecomer advantages. (3) before the crisis, the structure of foreign trade, energy efficiency and environmental benefit in eastern provinces of China were superior to those in China. The western provinces, but after the crisis in the east, central and western provinces have no obvious differences, and Chongqing, Sichuan, Henan has achieved significant results on its. Accordingly, we should make full use of the advantages of the economic radiation effect in the eastern provinces to promote the expansion of the free trade zone, and give full play to the demonstration effects of foreign trade development in Chongqing, Sichuan, Henan and Shaanxi.
【作者单位】：复旦大学世界经济研究所;复旦大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F72;;F722.9

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