黑龙江省农业贷款对农业经济增长影响实证研究
发布时间：2018-07-18 13:52
【摘要】：作为农业大省,黑龙江省在“十三五”时期面临着结构性改革与发展,在推进农业供给侧结构性改革,破解农业发展难题、促进农业持续稳定发展、加快农业现代化与农业经济发展的过程中均离不开农业贷款作为必要的资金支持和保障。在诸多国内外文献研究中,关于农业贷款对农业经济的影响分析,国外学者更侧重于以国家整体作为研究和分析的对象,在具体分析某国农业经济发展实际情况时,侧重分析造成农业贷款发展水平低的原因,研究范围较为宏观。相比之下,国内学者更侧重于从微观细化的角度对农业贷款同农业经济发展关系的角度研究,研究范围多为全国性或区域性,研究采用的实证分析方法较为丰富和多样化,但是对于全国范围的研究结果较为相近,即农业贷款对农业经济增长影响具有区域化特征,而对具体省份区域的研究相对较少。由于农业贷款对农业经济增长影响的区域化差异明显,对具体省份和地区的研究应结合当地实际农业经济发展水平和农村金融相关政策。本研究选取黑龙江省作为研究对象的原因在于其为我国重要的农业省份,农业发展对当地经济生活影响较大。同时,研究黑龙江省农业贷款对农业经济发展的影响对其他农业省份合理利用农业贷款资源具有一定的指导和借鉴意义。本研究在明确农业贷款与农业经济增长相关概念和理论的基础上,首先从反映黑龙江省农业贷款规模现状、农业贷款发展效率现状以及农业经济发展整体现状等角度做宏观的定性分析与描述;其次,明确农业贷款对农业经济发展的传导机制,并在广泛阅读相关研究文献的基础上以全面、客观的原则选取可以代表黑龙江省农业贷款发展的指标变量,建立有效的评价指标体系;第三,从定量分析角度对标准化处理后的指标数据做主成分分析与公因子提取,即降低指标变量间的相关关系和信息重叠,又实现精简变量的目的,有效地从多项指标变量中提取出转化效率公因子与规模深度公因子,对提取的两个公因子与经对数化处理后的农林牧渔生产总值做单位根检验与杰森协整分析并建立VAR向量自回归模型,利用格兰杰因果检验分析农业贷款与农业经济发展间存在单向因果关系,进而建立农业贷款与农业经济发展间的向量自回归估计模型。实证分析结果显示,对农业经济发展有正向促进作用的影响因素为农业贷款的转化效率因子与规模深度因子,其中促进作用较为显著的是转化效率因子。针对上述实证分析结果,结合黑龙江省农业贷款与农业经济发展的实际状况,建议创新农村金融服务产品和农业贷款服务模式、引导农村资金回流农村、完善农业贷款投放方式、健全完善农业保险制度与农业贷款信用担保体系,从而更好地发挥农业贷款的影响作用。
[Abstract]:As a big agricultural province, Heilongjiang Province is facing structural reform and development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. In promoting the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture, we can solve the problem of agricultural development and promote the sustainable and stable development of agriculture. The process of accelerating agricultural modernization and agricultural economic development can not be separated from agricultural loan as necessary financial support and guarantee. In many domestic and foreign literature studies, on the analysis of the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economy, foreign scholars pay more attention to the research and analysis of the whole country, in the specific analysis of the actual situation of a country's agricultural economy development. Focus on the analysis of the reasons for the low level of agricultural loan development, the scope of the study is more macro. In contrast, domestic scholars pay more attention to the study of the relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural economic development from the perspective of micro-refinement. The research scope is mostly national or regional, and the empirical analysis methods used in the research are relatively rich and diversified. However, the national research results are similar, that is, the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economic growth has the characteristics of regionalization, while the study of specific provinces and regions is relatively small. Because the regionalization difference of agricultural loan's influence on agricultural economic growth is obvious, the research on specific provinces and regions should be combined with the development level of local agricultural economy and the relevant policies of rural finance. The reason for choosing Heilongjiang Province as the research object is that it is an important agricultural province in China, and agricultural development has a great impact on local economic life. At the same time, the study of the impact of agricultural loans on the development of agricultural economy in Heilongjiang Province has certain guiding and referential significance for other agricultural provinces to make rational use of agricultural loan resources. On the basis of defining the concepts and theories of agricultural loan and agricultural economic growth, this study first reflects the current situation of agricultural loan scale in Heilongjiang Province. The present situation of agricultural loan development efficiency and the overall situation of agricultural economic development are analyzed and described qualitatively. Secondly, the transmission mechanism of agricultural loan to agricultural economic development is clarified. And on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant research literature on the basis of comprehensive and objective principles can represent the development of agricultural loans in Heilongjiang Province indicators variables to establish an effective evaluation index system; third, From the point of view of quantitative analysis, the principal component analysis and common factor extraction of standardized treated index data are made, that is, to reduce the correlation between index variables and information overlap, and to achieve the purpose of reducing variables. The conversion efficiency common factor and the scale depth common factor are effectively extracted from a number of index variables. A VAR vector autoregressive model was established by unit root test and Jason cointegration analysis of the two common factors extracted and the logarithmic treatment of agricultural, forestry, pastoral and fishery gross value. The Granger causality test is used to analyze the one-way causality between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development, and then a vector autoregressive estimation model between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development is established. The results of empirical analysis show that the factors that have a positive effect on the development of agricultural economy are the conversion efficiency factor and the scale depth factor of agricultural loan, among which the most significant one is the conversion efficiency factor. In view of the above empirical analysis results, combined with the actual situation of agricultural loans and agricultural economic development in Heilongjiang Province, it is suggested to innovate rural financial service products and agricultural loan service models, and to guide rural funds to return to rural areas. Improve the mode of agricultural loans, improve the agricultural insurance system and agricultural loan credit guarantee system, so as to play a better role in the impact of agricultural loans.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.43;F327
本文编号：2132103
[Abstract]:As a big agricultural province, Heilongjiang Province is facing structural reform and development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. In promoting the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture, we can solve the problem of agricultural development and promote the sustainable and stable development of agriculture. The process of accelerating agricultural modernization and agricultural economic development can not be separated from agricultural loan as necessary financial support and guarantee. In many domestic and foreign literature studies, on the analysis of the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economy, foreign scholars pay more attention to the research and analysis of the whole country, in the specific analysis of the actual situation of a country's agricultural economy development. Focus on the analysis of the reasons for the low level of agricultural loan development, the scope of the study is more macro. In contrast, domestic scholars pay more attention to the study of the relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural economic development from the perspective of micro-refinement. The research scope is mostly national or regional, and the empirical analysis methods used in the research are relatively rich and diversified. However, the national research results are similar, that is, the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economic growth has the characteristics of regionalization, while the study of specific provinces and regions is relatively small. Because the regionalization difference of agricultural loan's influence on agricultural economic growth is obvious, the research on specific provinces and regions should be combined with the development level of local agricultural economy and the relevant policies of rural finance. The reason for choosing Heilongjiang Province as the research object is that it is an important agricultural province in China, and agricultural development has a great impact on local economic life. At the same time, the study of the impact of agricultural loans on the development of agricultural economy in Heilongjiang Province has certain guiding and referential significance for other agricultural provinces to make rational use of agricultural loan resources. On the basis of defining the concepts and theories of agricultural loan and agricultural economic growth, this study first reflects the current situation of agricultural loan scale in Heilongjiang Province. The present situation of agricultural loan development efficiency and the overall situation of agricultural economic development are analyzed and described qualitatively. Secondly, the transmission mechanism of agricultural loan to agricultural economic development is clarified. And on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant research literature on the basis of comprehensive and objective principles can represent the development of agricultural loans in Heilongjiang Province indicators variables to establish an effective evaluation index system; third, From the point of view of quantitative analysis, the principal component analysis and common factor extraction of standardized treated index data are made, that is, to reduce the correlation between index variables and information overlap, and to achieve the purpose of reducing variables. The conversion efficiency common factor and the scale depth common factor are effectively extracted from a number of index variables. A VAR vector autoregressive model was established by unit root test and Jason cointegration analysis of the two common factors extracted and the logarithmic treatment of agricultural, forestry, pastoral and fishery gross value. The Granger causality test is used to analyze the one-way causality between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development, and then a vector autoregressive estimation model between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development is established. The results of empirical analysis show that the factors that have a positive effect on the development of agricultural economy are the conversion efficiency factor and the scale depth factor of agricultural loan, among which the most significant one is the conversion efficiency factor. In view of the above empirical analysis results, combined with the actual situation of agricultural loans and agricultural economic development in Heilongjiang Province, it is suggested to innovate rural financial service products and agricultural loan service models, and to guide rural funds to return to rural areas. Improve the mode of agricultural loans, improve the agricultural insurance system and agricultural loan credit guarantee system, so as to play a better role in the impact of agricultural loans.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.43;F327
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