货币政策应该对房价波动做出反应吗——基于中国房地产市场衰退情境的模拟分析
发布时间：2018-07-20 09:54
【摘要】：2014年以来,中国房地产市场经历了明显的衰退和复苏的调整过程,在衰退阶段,房地产市场总需求和总供给出现了结构失衡的局面,对经济发展产生了负面影响。如何减轻房地产市场调整对宏观经济运行的负面影响成为未来中国经济平稳发展的关键。本文从货币政策反应函数的视角出发,模拟分析在货币政策反应函数考虑和不考虑房价波动的情形下,房地产市场进入衰退阶段对宏观经济的影响。结果表明:(1)当货币政策反应函数考虑房价波动时,能够有效减轻房地产市场进入衰退阶段对宏观经济的负面影响;(2)当货币政策反应函数考虑房价波动时,能够显著减轻房地产市场进入衰退阶段时房价的波动程度,进而实现更小的社会福利损失。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, China's real estate market has gone through a process of adjustment of recession and recovery. During the recession period, the aggregate demand and supply of real estate market has been out of balance, which has a negative impact on economic development. How to mitigate the negative impact of real estate market adjustment on macroeconomic operation is the key to the smooth development of Chinese economy in the future. From the point of view of monetary policy response function, this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the real estate market entering into recession stage on the macro economy when the monetary policy response function considers and does not consider the fluctuation of house price. The results show that: (1) when the monetary policy response function considers the fluctuation of house price, it can effectively mitigate the negative impact of the real estate market entering the recession stage on the macro economy; (2) when the monetary policy response function considers the fluctuation of house price, It can significantly reduce the volatility of house prices when the real estate market enters the recession phase, and then achieve a smaller social welfare loss.
【作者单位】： 南京大学经济学院;浙江工商大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0
[Abstract]:Since 2014, China's real estate market has gone through a process of adjustment of recession and recovery. During the recession period, the aggregate demand and supply of real estate market has been out of balance, which has a negative impact on economic development. How to mitigate the negative impact of real estate market adjustment on macroeconomic operation is the key to the smooth development of Chinese economy in the future. From the point of view of monetary policy response function, this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the real estate market entering into recession stage on the macro economy when the monetary policy response function considers and does not consider the fluctuation of house price. The results show that: (1) when the monetary policy response function considers the fluctuation of house price, it can effectively mitigate the negative impact of the real estate market entering the recession stage on the macro economy; (2) when the monetary policy response function considers the fluctuation of house price, It can significantly reduce the volatility of house prices when the real estate market enters the recession phase, and then achieve a smaller social welfare loss.
【作者单位】： 南京大学经济学院;浙江工商大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0
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