经济开放、结构性冲击与货币供求机制变化

发布时间：2018-07-27 11:00

【摘要】：货币供给与价格产出间的稳定关系构成了货币政策有效性的前提,但在我国则受到了来自货币供求机制变化及所谓“迷失”货币问题的强劲挑战,货币化拐点出现后仍然持续加重的货币“迷失”现象更是成为现有理论解释的难点。本文基于年度数据以及季度数据的实证检验,发现我国迷失货币的持续加重主要源自阶段性的动因转换,伴随着90年代后经济开放的迅速推进,外汇占款冲击逐渐取代货币化进程成为我国迷失货币的主要成因;在外汇占款波动的影响下,忽略开放经济条件下货币供给的结构性特征而直接讨论总量问题具有明显的局限性,尤其是在当前各国货币政策分歧加大且叠加了经济转型担忧的情境之下,在货币政策制定和执行过程中,理应纳入外部结构性冲击对于国内货币供求机制的影响。
[Abstract]:The stable relationship between money supply and price output constitutes the premise of the effectiveness of monetary policy, but in China it is challenged strongly by the change of monetary supply and demand mechanism and the so-called "lost" monetary problem. The phenomenon of currency "lost", which continues to increase after the turning point of monetization, has become a difficult point in theoretical explanation. Based on the empirical test of annual data and quarterly data, this paper finds that the sustained aggravation of lost currency in China is mainly due to the period of change of motivation, which is accompanied by the rapid development of economic opening after the 1990s. The impact of foreign exchange has gradually replaced the process of monetization as the main cause of loss of currency in China; under the influence of the fluctuation of foreign currency, Ignoring the structural characteristics of money supply in an open economy and discussing the aggregate problem directly have obvious limitations, especially in the current situation in which the monetary policy differences are widening and the worries of economic transformation are superimposed. In the process of monetary policy formulation and implementation, the influence of external structural shock on domestic monetary supply and demand mechanism should be taken into account.
【作者单位】：重庆工商大学;

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