上市公司定增破发后股价走势对投资的借鉴

发布时间：2018-07-28 20:15

【摘要】：自2006年中国证监会颁布并实施《上市公司证券发行管理办法》以来,因为定向增发具有审批流程较短、获得的融资长久稳定、门槛较低且对于投资者来说具有一定折价等优势,备受上市公司及投资者青睐。2014年至2016年是定增发展最迅猛的三年,2013年全年实际募集次数仅有281次,实际募集规模3440. 18亿元,2016年全年实际募集次数794次,实际募集规模达到18008. 99亿元,较2013年增长了 423. 5%,创造了历史新高。然而,有时候会因为市场环境、公司基本面变化等多方面的原因,在定增实施后出现二级市场股价跌破定增发行价的“定向增发破发现象”。随着定增次数的增多和定增规模的不断增大,破发现象也变得频繁起来。国内外学者大部分研究切入点主要为定增公告的公告效应,大股东支持和侵占理论以及上市公司定增长短期效应等方面,而本文的研究切入点是定向增发解禁前出现的破发现象,是较为新颖的。本文对2014年至2016年我国A股市场定向增发实施后至解禁日破发的标的公司股价走势进行统计及筛选,并将样本数据分为2014年1月1日至2015年5月31日的牛市阶段、2015年6月1日至2016年2月28日的熊市阶段和2014年1月1日至2016年2月28日的全样本阶段,选取了最大破发比例、大股东认购比例、定增规模与总市值大小比例、流通市值、毛利率、净资产收益率、企业性质、上证综指同期涨跌幅八个自变量,运用SPSS软件进行多元线性回归,分析破发后至解禁日最大涨幅的相关影响因素。研究表明:牛市阶段下,最大破发比例、毛利率、企业性质、上证综指同期涨跌幅以及常量五个变量是显著的。熊市阶段下,最大破发比例、定增规模与市值比例、流通市值、上证综指同期涨跌幅以及常量五个变量是显著的。全样本区间下,最大破发比例、流通市值、毛利率、企业性质、上证综指同期涨跌幅以及常量六个变量是显著的。用全样本数据作出的多元线性回归方程拟合效果最好,显著变量也较多。原因可能是全样本数据量较大,进行多元回归时能够较好地消除市场环境以及其他因素对回归结果的影响。最后根据结论,本文提出了基于定向增发破发现象的投资策略建议,具有较强的实践意义。
[Abstract]:Since the China Securities Regulatory Commission promulgated and implemented the "measures for the Administration of Securities issuance of listed companies" in 2006, because of the relatively short approval process, the long-term stability of the financing obtained, the low threshold and the advantages of a certain discount for investors, etc. Listed companies and investors favour them. 2014 to 2016 was the fastest growing year for growth, with only 281 actual offerings in 2013, with 3440,400 in total. 1.8 billion yuan, in 2016, the actual number of annual fund-raising 794, the actual size of the collection reached 1, 008. 9.9 billion yuan, an increase of 423.3 percent over 2013. Five, set a record high. However, sometimes due to the market environment, the company's fundamental changes and other reasons, after the implementation of the fixed increase, the secondary market share price fell below the fixed issue price of the "directional issuance break phenomenon." With the constant increase in the number of times and the constant increase in the size of the phenomenon has become frequent. Most scholars at home and abroad mainly focus on the announcement effect of fixed increase announcement, the theory of large shareholder support and encroachment, and the short-term effect of fixed growth of listed companies, etc. The breakthrough point of this paper is the breaking phenomenon before the release of the ban, which is relatively novel. In this paper, the stock price trends of the target companies in China's A share market from 2014 to 2016 after the implementation of directional additional offerings to the day of lifting the ban are statistically analyzed and screened. The sample data are divided into the bull period from 1 January 2014 to 31 May 2015, the bear market stage from 1 June 2015 to 28 February 2016 and the full sample period from 1 January 2014 to 28 February 2016. The proportion of major shareholders subscription, the proportion of fixed increase scale to total market value size, circulating market value, gross profit rate, net asset return rate, enterprise nature, Shanghai Composite Index rise and fall in the same period eight independent variables, using SPSS software to carry out multivariate linear regression, Analysis of the largest increase after breaking to the lifting of the ban on the relevant factors. The results show that the maximum break ratio, gross profit margin, enterprise nature, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period and the five variables of constant are significant. In the bear market stage, the maximum break ratio, the proportion of constant increase and market value, the circulating market value, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index and the constant five variables are significant. In the whole sample interval, the maximum break ratio, circulation market value, gross profit margin, enterprise nature, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period and six variables of constant are significant. The multivariate linear regression equation based on the whole sample data is the best one, and there are many significant variables. The reason may be that the total sample data is large and the influence of market environment and other factors on the regression results can be well eliminated when multivariate regression is carried out. Finally, according to the conclusion, this paper puts forward the investment strategy suggestions based on the phenomenon of directional placement break, which has strong practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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