美国退出QE与中国经济波动关联性分析——基于短期资本流动的视角
发布时间：2018-08-16 10:24
【摘要】：文章通过VAR模型分析美国量化宽松货币政策退出对中国宏观经济的影响,并运用月度宏观经济数据从短期资本流动角度进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策的退出对中国短期资本流动不产生直接影响,汇率和利率指标也不是影响中国短期资本流动的显著因素,控制M2的增长率是减少美国量化宽松货币政策退出对中国经济冲击的最核心指标。美国退出量化宽松货币政策将会从通货膨胀、货币供给、宏观经济波动对中国经济造成一定影响,通过研究美国量化宽松政策退出,探讨美国货币政策变动与中国资本流动的联动性,致力于在复杂的中美经济关系和美国金融环境变化下,提出有利于中国短期资本市场稳定发展的货币政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's macro economy through VAR model, and makes an empirical analysis from the perspective of short-term capital flow using monthly macroeconomic data. The results show that the withdrawal of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States has no direct impact on China's short-term capital flows, and the exchange rate and interest rate indicators are not significant factors affecting China's short-term capital flows. Controlling M2 growth is the core indicator of reducing the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's economy. The withdrawal of the US monetary policy from quantitative easing will have a certain impact on the Chinese economy from inflation, money supply, and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper probes into the linkage between the changes of American monetary policy and the capital flow of China, and puts forward some suggestions for the stable development of China's short-term capital market under the complicated Sino-US economic relations and the changes of American financial environment.
【作者单位】： 东北财经大学金融学院;
【分类号】：F827.12;F124
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's macro economy through VAR model, and makes an empirical analysis from the perspective of short-term capital flow using monthly macroeconomic data. The results show that the withdrawal of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States has no direct impact on China's short-term capital flows, and the exchange rate and interest rate indicators are not significant factors affecting China's short-term capital flows. Controlling M2 growth is the core indicator of reducing the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's economy. The withdrawal of the US monetary policy from quantitative easing will have a certain impact on the Chinese economy from inflation, money supply, and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper probes into the linkage between the changes of American monetary policy and the capital flow of China, and puts forward some suggestions for the stable development of China's short-term capital market under the complicated Sino-US economic relations and the changes of American financial environment.
【作者单位】： 东北财经大学金融学院;
【分类号】：F827.12;F124
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