损失厌恶视角的居民通货膨胀承受能力研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 12:07

【摘要】：近年来,是否有必要提高对通胀的容忍度是通胀目标管理的一大难题。本文试图从损失厌恶的角度刻画消费者对通胀和收入的非对称心理,并据此构建出居民通胀承受能力的测算框架。论文引入时变的损失厌恶系数构建通胀承受能力理论模型,表明居民损失厌恶程度、必需品价格上涨占比与通胀的可承受能力负相关,实际收入增长率与通胀的可承受能力正相关。并运用我国进入21世纪后的相关数据测算出通胀承受能力警戒线。测算结果表明,中低收入群体承受着巨大的心理压力,主要与收入差距过大、以食品价格上涨为主导的通胀特征以及现金支出、工资收入为主的个体特征有关。基于以上结论,建议央行关注影响通胀预期方面的心理因素,将通胀承受能力因素纳入通胀目标上限管理,以缩小通胀目标与实际通胀的偏离度。此外,缩小收入差距、缩短通胀持续时间有助于降低居民的通胀预期。
[Abstract]:In recent years, whether it is necessary to improve the tolerance of inflation is a big problem in inflation target management. This paper tries to describe the asymmetric psychology of consumers towards inflation and income from the perspective of loss aversion, and then constructs a measuring framework for residents'inflation tolerance. The theoretical model shows that the degree of residents'loss aversion, the proportion of necessities prices rising is negatively correlated with the affordability of inflation, and the growth rate of real income is positively correlated with the affordability of inflation. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that the central bank should pay attention to the psychological factors affecting the inflation expectation and bring the inflation tolerance factor into the upper limit management of the inflation target in order to narrow the gap. In addition, narrowing the income gap and shortening the duration of inflation will help reduce inflation expectations.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学金融学院;对外经济贸易大学;北方民族大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“中低收入群体对通货膨胀承受能力的研究”(编号:12BJY037) 教育部人文社会科学一般项目“中国通货膨胀成因量化解析与全面压力测试——基于宏观审慎视角”(编号:12YJA790145)资助
【分类号】：F822.5;F726

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