美国政治施压事件对人民币汇率的影响研究:2005～2016年

发布时间：2018-08-29 08:36

【摘要】：汇率变动不是单纯的经济现象,其背后存在着宏观经济因素之外的政治诱因。文章运用事件分析法及相关检验分析2005~2016年美国政治施压事件对人民币汇率的施压效果,发现当处于升值阶段时,外部政治施压事件对人民币汇率的影响并不显著;但是处于贬值阶段时,人民币汇率更容易在外部政治事件的影响下升值。美国政治施压事件对人民币汇率的影响在长期并不显著,但自2014年2月人民币汇率进入持续波动贬值的轨道以来,尽管施压事件数量减少,事件(包括国会事件和行政事件)的成功率却有所上升。按照这一结论,如果人民币在未来保持持续贬值趋势,那么受美国施压事件影响的可能性会增大,且这种影响未必体现在施压事件的数量上,而是体现在施压事件的效果上,美国新任总统唐纳德·特朗普的上台进一步加强了这种可能性。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate change is not a simple economic phenomenon, but a political inducement beyond macroeconomic factors. This paper analyzes the effect of the US political pressure event on the RMB exchange rate from 2005 to 2016 by using event analysis and relevant tests, and finds that when the RMB exchange rate is in the stage of appreciation, the influence of external political pressure on the RMB exchange rate is not significant. But in the depreciation stage, the RMB exchange rate is easier to appreciate under the influence of external political events. The impact of US political pressure on the yuan's exchange rate has not been significant in the long run, but since February 2014, when the yuan has been on a path of sustained volatility and depreciation, despite the decline in the number of such incidents, The success rate of events (both congressional and administrative) has risen. According to this conclusion, if the RMB continues to depreciate in the future, the likelihood of being affected by US pressure incidents will increase, and this impact is not necessarily reflected in the number of pressure incidents, but in the effect of pressure events. The arrival of the new US president, Donald Trump, reinforces this possibility.
【作者单位】：广东金融学院信用管理系;
【基金】：广东省自然科学基金项目(项目编号:L2016A030310083)的资助
【分类号】：F831.6

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