互联网金融影响中国农业银行盈利的实证分析

发布时间：2018-09-03 11:08

【摘要】：近年来互联网金融发展迅猛,已成为我国金融领域重要的一股新生力量,互联网金融影响着我国的金融领域,而作为我国金融业规模比重最高的银行业难以避免其影响。它通过多元化的业务模式对传统商业银行的资产类业务、负债类业务和中间业务都造成一定的冲击。目前学者研究主要集中在互联网金融对银行业务影响方面,通过定量研究互联网金融影响商业银行盈利能力的文章不多。本文以中国农业银行为例,试图通过定性和定量两种方式来对这一问题进行专门研究,对于中国农业银行在互联网金融浪潮中的发展具有一定的实践指导价值。本文首先对相关理论基础进行介绍,在此基础上,对我国互联网金融发展和中国农业银行盈利现状作一分析,其次定性的分析了互联网金融业务对中国农业银行资产类业务、负债类业务和中间业务所带来的影响。接着从中国农业银行自身和外部两个层面选取30个季度的指标变量数据,运用协整分析、建立VAR模型等实证分析定量的研究互联网金融影响中国农业银行盈利能力的程度。最后在此基础上,对中国农业银行应对互联网金融的挑战提出了针对性的建议,也值得其他银行同业借鉴学习。本研究主要得出以下结论:(1)定性分析中看出,互联网金融业务会掠夺中国农业银行的存贷款量和中间业务的用户,会在一定程度上降低中国农业银行对不同业务的定价权,从而对其盈利产生影响。(2)资产收益率LROA、资本充足率LCAR、成本收入比LCI、第三方支付规模LTP、P2P网贷规模LP2P、国内生产总值LGDP的协整关系是存在的,变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。(3)作为衡量互联网金融发展所选取的两项变量——P2P网贷规模和第三方支付规模,均与中国农业银行盈利呈负线性相关关系,但从方差分解的结果来看,互联网金融对中国农业银行的盈利影响贡献度还是很小,没有自身经营水平指标——资本充足率和成本收入比等对其盈利影响明显。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Internet finance has developed rapidly, and has become an important new force in the financial field of our country. Internet finance affects the financial field of our country, but the banking industry, as the largest proportion of the financial industry in our country, cannot avoid its influence. It has a certain impact on the asset business, liability business and intermediate business of traditional commercial banks through diversified business models. At present, scholars mainly focus on the impact of Internet finance on the banking business, and there are few articles on the impact of Internet finance on the profitability of commercial banks. Taking the Agricultural Bank of China as an example, this paper attempts to make a special study on this issue by both qualitative and quantitative methods, which has certain practical guiding value for the development of Agricultural Bank of China in the wave of Internet finance. This paper first introduces the relevant theoretical basis, then analyzes the development of Internet finance and the current profit situation of Agricultural Bank of China, and then qualitatively analyzes the impact of Internet finance on the asset business of Agricultural Bank of China. The impact of liability business and intermediary business. Then from the agricultural bank of China itself and the external two levels selected 30 quarters of the index variable data, using cointegration analysis, VAR model and other empirical analysis quantitative analysis of the impact of Internet finance on the profitability of Agricultural Bank of China. On this basis, the paper puts forward some suggestions to the Agricultural Bank of China to deal with the challenge of Internet finance, and it is also worth learning from other banks. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the qualitative analysis shows that the Internet financial business will rob the users of the agricultural bank of China's deposits and loans and intermediary business, and will reduce the pricing power of the agricultural bank of China to a certain extent. Therefore, it has an impact on its profit. (2) the cointegration relationship between LCAR, cost income and LCI, third-party payment scale, LTP,P2P net loan scale, LP2P, GDP LGDP, is existing. (2) the capital adequacy ratio of LROA, is higher than that of LCI,. There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables. (3) as a measure of the development of Internet finance, two variables, P2P network loan scale and third-party payment scale, both have a negative linear correlation with Agricultural Bank of China profit. However, from the results of variance decomposition, the contribution of Internet finance to the profit of Agricultural Bank of China is still very small, and there is no such index as capital adequacy ratio and cost-income ratio.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.33;F830.42

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