我国跨境国际资本流动规模及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-10-04 19:57

【摘要】：自2005年7月21日中国人民银行宣布对人民币汇率制度进行改革,实行“以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的”浮动汇率制度以来,人民币不在单一钉住美元。伴随着人民币汇率波动性的增强,我国跨境国际资本流动也呈现出了新态势。跨境资本流动凭借其波动性强、方向易逆转、规模庞大等特性,对我国经济的发展和金融市场的稳定产生了巨大影响。特别是自2015年8月11日中国人民银行调整人民币汇率中间价形成机制至今,我国的外汇储备资产出现大幅度减少,跨境资本流出显著且规模巨大,学界针对汇率波动、外汇储备资产减少、跨境资本流出和资本项目的开放展开了一系列讨论,对这一形势背后的原因进行了深刻的思考。基于此,对我国跨境资本流动及其影响因素进行深入研究和分析具有十分重要的意义。本文对我国跨境国际资本流动的规模及其影响因素进行了较为全面和系统的研究。第一,结合当前现实分析了本文关于我国跨境资本流动规模以及影响因素研究的选题背景和意义,并梳理和总结已有的研究成果,提出了本文的研究目的及创新。第二,结合静态数据,从国内和国外、官方和私人多个角度,对我国当前跨境资本大规模流出的形式进行了初步分析;第三,对我国跨境国际资本的进出入渠道和估算方法进行了比较和分析和比较,从国际收支平衡表入手,梳理了直接估算法和间接估算法之间的逻辑关系,提出了本文的测算公式并使用间接法测算了2000年1月至2016年12月我国跨境国际资本的流动规模;第四,从动态层面,采用了普通最小二乘法、VAR模型对影响我国跨境资本流动规模的因素进行分析并得出了相关结论,其中还对2010年6月至2016年12月影响我国跨境资本流出的因素进行了着重分析。第五,总结前文的主要研究内容,针对我国跨境国际资本的流动现实及其变动趋势作出估计和判断;参考前文静态数据分析和动态实证分析的结果,提出相关政策建议。本文的研究结果表明,影响我国跨境国际资本流动规模的因素众多,不同时期跨境国际资本的流动呈现出不同的特点。在众多影响中国跨境国际资本流动的因素当中,人民币汇率、利率、中国房地产景气指数的作用较强,而股票价格指数波动与我国跨境国际资本流动之间存在反向变动关系。而当前驱动我国跨境国际资本的大规模流出的因素,既有内因又有外因。经济下行压力、资本项目的进一步开放,导致境内居民海外配资规模扩大;美国经济的全面复苏,也刺激了境内外资和境内内资的外流;而2015年“8·11”汇改之后人民币汇率大幅度贬值也成为跨境国际资本流动的重要原因,特别是人民银行的外汇市场操作,更直接导致了我国以外汇储备为估算基础的跨境国际资本的大规模流出。
[Abstract]:Since July 21, 2005, when the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, it has implemented a floating exchange rate system "based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies." The yuan is not pegged to the dollar alone. With the increasing volatility of RMB exchange rate, China's cross-border international capital flows have also taken on a new trend. Cross-border capital flow has great influence on the development of Chinese economy and the stability of financial market because of its characteristics of strong volatility, easy to reverse, large scale and so on. Especially since August 11, 2015, when the people's Bank of China adjusted the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, the foreign exchange reserve assets of our country have been greatly reduced, the cross-border capital outflow is significant and the scale is huge, the academic circles aim at the exchange rate fluctuation. A series of discussions have been carried out on the reduction of foreign exchange reserve assets, cross-border capital outflow and the opening of capital account, and the reasons behind this situation have been deeply considered. Based on this, it is of great significance to study and analyze the cross-border capital flow and its influencing factors in China. This paper makes a comprehensive and systematic study on the scale and influencing factors of cross-border international capital flows in China. First, this paper analyzes the background and significance of the research on the scale of cross-border capital flow and its influencing factors, combs and summarizes the existing research results, and puts forward the purpose and innovation of this paper. Second, combined with static data, from the domestic and foreign, official and private perspectives, the current form of large-scale cross-border capital outflow in China has been preliminarily analyzed. Third, This paper compares, analyzes and compares the channels and methods of entering and going into and out of cross-border international capital in China, starting with the balance of payments, combing the logical relationship between direct estimation and indirect estimation. This paper puts forward the calculation formula and uses indirect method to calculate the scale of cross-border international capital flow from January 2000 to December 2016. Fourth, from the dynamic level, This paper analyzes the factors that affect the scale of cross-border capital flow in China by using the ordinary least square method (VAR) model and draws the relevant conclusions. The factors that affect the cross-border capital outflow from June 2010 to December 2016 are also analyzed emphatically. Fifthly, summarize the main research contents above, estimate and judge the reality of cross-border international capital flow and its changing trend in China, and put forward relevant policy recommendations with reference to the results of static data analysis and dynamic empirical analysis. The results show that there are many factors affecting the scale of cross-border international capital flows in China, and different characteristics of cross-border international capital flows in different periods. Among the factors that influence China's cross-border international capital flow, RMB exchange rate, interest rate and China real estate boom index play a strong role, while the volatility of stock price index has a reverse relationship with the cross-border international capital flow of China. At present, there are both internal and external factors driving the large-scale outflow of cross-border international capital in China. The downward pressure of the economy and the further opening of the capital account have led to the expansion of the overseas allocation scale of domestic residents, and the overall recovery of the US economy has also stimulated the outflow of foreign and domestic capital at home and abroad. And after the "11 August" exchange rate reform in 2015, the RMB exchange rate also became a major reason for cross-border international capital flows, especially the operation of the people's Bank of China's foreign exchange market. It directly leads to a large outflow of cross-border international capital based on foreign exchange reserves.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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