金融发展与贫困减缓的非线性关系研究——基于省级面板数据的门限回归分析

发布时间：2018-10-15 12:05

【摘要】：本文构建理论假说:第一,金融发展对贫困减缓的影响存在着直接效应和间接效应,同时经济发展水平和人口数量也会影响贫困的减缓;第二,金融发展水平对贫困的影响可能存在门槛效应;第三,金融发展对贫困减缓的作用路径在于"辐射效应"。随之本文利用2000-2012年31个省、市、自治区的面板数据集,对金融发展与贫困减缓之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:金融发展水平与贫困减缓之间不是简单的线性关系,二者可能存在着"倒U"关系,即存在先抑制后改善的效应;此外,经济增长、人力资本投入和第三产业发展均会增大贫困减缓效应,因此除了从金融发展的角度解决贫困问题,还应该从促进经济增长、加大人力资本投入和发展第三产业的角度入手,探索减贫之道。
[Abstract]:Firstly, there are direct and indirect effects of financial development on poverty alleviation, at the same time, the level of economic development and population will also affect poverty alleviation. The influence of financial development level on poverty may have threshold effect; third, the effect path of financial development on poverty alleviation lies in "radiation effect". Then, using the panel data sets of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation. The results show that there is not a simple linear relationship between the level of financial development and poverty alleviation. There may be a "inverted U" relationship between the two, that is, the effect of first restraining and then improving; in addition, economic growth, Both human capital investment and the development of the tertiary industry will increase the poverty alleviation effect. Therefore, in addition to solving the poverty problem from the perspective of financial development, we should also start from the perspective of promoting economic growth, increasing investment in human capital and developing the tertiary industry. Explore ways to reduce poverty.
【作者单位】：西南民族大学经济学院;西华大学经济学院;
【基金】：中国西部民族经济研究中心项目“多维贫困分析框架下西部民族地区精准扶贫研究”(CWEER201601) 四川省教育厅项目“金融扶贫阀域下区域金融小镇发展模式研究”(JR201601)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F832;F126

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