人民币实际有效汇率影响中国就业的传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 07:40

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来,我国的经济飞速发展,目前我国国内生产总值位于全球第二位。对外贸易总额不断增长、外商投资不断流入、就业状况不断改善是我国经济实力增强的表现,同时也对人民币汇率造成了一定的升值压力。在经济全球化的进程中,我国的经济增长和就业发展易受汇率波动的影响。目前人民币面临持续升值的压力,因此研究人民币实际汇率变动对中国各行业就业的直接影响和间接影响具有重要现实意义。本文采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,研究人民币实际有效汇率对全国就业和三大产业就业的直接影响和通过传导机制对就业的间接影响。首先,文章详细阐述汇率通过对外贸易传导机制、资产负债比传导机制、外商直接投资传导机制、货币供给传导机制对就业的理论影响;然后,运用ADF单位根检验法、多元线性回归、自回归分布滞后(Autoregressive Distributed Lag,ARDL)模型,实证检验人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业的直接影响和通过传导机制产生的间接影响;最后在实证结论的基础上提出相关政策建议。本文最终得出国内生产总值的提高与第一产业就业量的变动呈反向关系,与全国、第二产业和第三产业就业量的变动呈正向关系。人民币实际有效汇率的升值对全国就业的作用是负向作用,在进口贸易传导机制和外商直接投资传导机制的影响下,其负向作用被减弱,在出口贸易传导机制的影响下,负向作用得到扩大。在人民币实际有效汇率不断升值的影响下,第一产业就业发展得到一定的促进作用。而第二产业、第三产业就业的发展受到一定程度的阻碍作用,尤其是对外贸易依赖程度大,实际利用外商直接投资少的企业。为此必须要采取相关措施避免人民币实际有效汇率在短期内大幅度升值,减少企业的对外贸易依赖程度,积极引进优良的外商直接投资。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the economy of our country has developed rapidly. At present, the GDP of our country is the second in the world. The increase of total foreign trade, the inflow of foreign investment and the improvement of employment are the manifestations of the strengthening of China's economic strength, and at the same time, it also causes a certain pressure of appreciation on the exchange rate of RMB. In the process of economic globalization, China's economic growth and employment development are vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. At present, the RMB is facing the pressure of continuous appreciation, so it is of great practical significance to study the direct and indirect influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on the employment of various industries in China. By combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper studies the direct influence of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on employment in China and the employment of three major industries, and the indirect influence on employment through transmission mechanism. First of all, the paper elaborates the theoretical influence of exchange rate on employment through foreign trade transmission mechanism, asset-liability ratio transmission mechanism, foreign direct investment transmission mechanism and money supply transmission mechanism, and then applies ADF unit root test method. Multiple linear regression, autoregressive distribution lag (Autoregressive Distributed Lag,ARDL) model, empirical test of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the employment of direct impact and through the transmission mechanism of indirect impact; Finally, on the basis of empirical conclusions, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward. This paper finally draws the conclusion that the increase of GDP is inversely related to the change of the employment volume of the primary industry, and it is positively related to the change of the employment volume of the national, secondary and tertiary industries. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on national employment. Under the influence of import trade transmission mechanism and foreign direct investment transmission mechanism, its negative effect is weakened, and under the influence of export trade transmission mechanism, The negative effect is enlarged. Under the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate, the employment development of primary industry has been promoted to a certain extent. However, the development of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries is hindered to a certain extent, especially for enterprises that rely heavily on foreign trade and actually use less foreign direct investment. Therefore, we must take relevant measures to prevent the real effective exchange rate of RMB from appreciating greatly in the short term, reduce the degree of foreign trade dependence of enterprises, and actively introduce excellent foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.2

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