我国央行新型货币政策有效性研究
发布时间：2018-11-05 19:02
【摘要】：2007年次贷危机爆发之后,美联储等世界各国货币当局推出各类创新型货币政策复苏经济,取得较明显的效果。借鉴国际经验,在我国当前产能过剩,多重结构性失衡,传统货币政策效果弱化的背景下,为实现经济结构性调整,稳定金融体系,我国央行先后创设了短期流动性调节SLO和借贷便利类等一系列定向调节短期和中长期流动性工具,经过近几年的频繁操作和实践,成效明显。本文基于以上背景,将我国央行新型货币政策纳入国际上对非常规货币政策解释的范畴,主要采用了理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法对新型货币政策有效性问题进行定性和定量研究。本文首先对国内外相关文献及有效性相关基础理论进行了总结和分析,基于货币非中性理论展开对我国央行新型货币政策有效性的研究。其次,梳理概括央行在2013年以来使用新型货币政策工具特征及影响,结合我国实践及相关经济理论,从工具、传导机制、中介目标、最终目标等方面构建我国新型货币政策理论体系框架。最后,基于结构向量自回归SVAR模型,将新型货币政策按照中介目标不同分为以构建利率走廊上限为中介目标新型货币政策工具和以定向提供货币供应量为中介目标的定向降准,其中新型货币政策工具按照期限不同又分为短期和中长期,在本文所构建的理论体系框架内进行实证检验。结果表明,新型货币政策工具不仅在量上增加信贷,从价格上形成利率走廊上限,引导短期市场利率和中长期市场利率下降,并且中长期的引导效果更加显著;货币政策新型使用定向降准增加小微企业贷款效果明显,但是在调控三农信贷量变化方面还需其他政策搭配。本文认为,要使得新型货币政策更加有效,需要进一步完善央行货币政策体系框架,疏通传导过程薄弱环节,尤其是商业银行对央行货币政策的反应的灵敏性是至关重要的环节,对此建议货币政策操作时不仅要搭配短期及中长期货币政策,也可以搭配其他相关政策,如差异化资本充足率等,并建议政府实施一定的财税支持政策,才能更好实现政策意图。
[Abstract]:After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, the monetary authorities around the world, such as the Federal Reserve, launched various innovative monetary policies to revive the economy, and achieved more obvious results. Using international experience for reference, in order to realize the structural adjustment of the economy and stabilize the financial system, under the background of overcapacity, multiple structural imbalance and weakening of the effect of traditional monetary policy, China's central bank has created a series of short-term and medium- and long-term liquidity regulation tools, such as short-term liquidity regulation SLO and lending facilities. After frequent operation and practice in recent years, remarkable results have been achieved. Based on the above background, this paper brings the new monetary policy of our central bank into the international interpretation of unconventional monetary policy. This paper studies the validity of new monetary policy qualitatively and quantitatively by combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, this paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant literature and the basic theory of effectiveness, and studies the effectiveness of new monetary policy of the central bank based on the non-neutral monetary theory. Secondly, combing and summarizing the characteristics and influence of the central bank's use of new monetary policy tools since 2013, combining with China's practice and relevant economic theory, from the tools, transmission mechanisms, intermediary targets, The final goal and other aspects of China's new monetary policy theoretical framework. Finally, based on the structural vector autoregressive SVAR model, the new monetary policy is divided into two categories according to the intermediate target: constructing the upper limit of interest rate corridor as the intermediate target, and providing the money supply as the intermediate target. The new monetary policy tools are divided into short term and long term according to different periods. The empirical test is carried out within the framework of the theoretical system constructed in this paper. The results show that the new monetary policy instrument not only increases credit in quantity, forms the upper limit of interest rate corridor from price, but also leads to the decline of short-term market interest rate and medium- and long-term market interest rate, and the mid- and long-term guiding effect is more remarkable. The new use of targeted reduction in monetary policy increases the effect of lending to small and micro enterprises, but other policies are needed to adjust and control the change of credit volume in agriculture, rural areas and farmers. This paper holds that in order to make the new monetary policy more effective, it is necessary to further improve the framework of the central bank's monetary policy system and clear the weak links in the transmission process. In particular, the sensitivity of commercial banks to the central bank's monetary policy is a crucial link. To this end, it is suggested that monetary policy should be operated not only with short-term and medium- and long-term monetary policies, but also with other relevant policies. If the capital adequacy ratio is differentiated, and the government should implement certain fiscal and tax support policies, the policy intention can be better realized.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0
[Abstract]:After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, the monetary authorities around the world, such as the Federal Reserve, launched various innovative monetary policies to revive the economy, and achieved more obvious results. Using international experience for reference, in order to realize the structural adjustment of the economy and stabilize the financial system, under the background of overcapacity, multiple structural imbalance and weakening of the effect of traditional monetary policy, China's central bank has created a series of short-term and medium- and long-term liquidity regulation tools, such as short-term liquidity regulation SLO and lending facilities. After frequent operation and practice in recent years, remarkable results have been achieved. Based on the above background, this paper brings the new monetary policy of our central bank into the international interpretation of unconventional monetary policy. This paper studies the validity of new monetary policy qualitatively and quantitatively by combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, this paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant literature and the basic theory of effectiveness, and studies the effectiveness of new monetary policy of the central bank based on the non-neutral monetary theory. Secondly, combing and summarizing the characteristics and influence of the central bank's use of new monetary policy tools since 2013, combining with China's practice and relevant economic theory, from the tools, transmission mechanisms, intermediary targets, The final goal and other aspects of China's new monetary policy theoretical framework. Finally, based on the structural vector autoregressive SVAR model, the new monetary policy is divided into two categories according to the intermediate target: constructing the upper limit of interest rate corridor as the intermediate target, and providing the money supply as the intermediate target. The new monetary policy tools are divided into short term and long term according to different periods. The empirical test is carried out within the framework of the theoretical system constructed in this paper. The results show that the new monetary policy instrument not only increases credit in quantity, forms the upper limit of interest rate corridor from price, but also leads to the decline of short-term market interest rate and medium- and long-term market interest rate, and the mid- and long-term guiding effect is more remarkable. The new use of targeted reduction in monetary policy increases the effect of lending to small and micro enterprises, but other policies are needed to adjust and control the change of credit volume in agriculture, rural areas and farmers. This paper holds that in order to make the new monetary policy more effective, it is necessary to further improve the framework of the central bank's monetary policy system and clear the weak links in the transmission process. In particular, the sensitivity of commercial banks to the central bank's monetary policy is a crucial link. To this end, it is suggested that monetary policy should be operated not only with short-term and medium- and long-term monetary policies, but also with other relevant policies. If the capital adequacy ratio is differentiated, and the government should implement certain fiscal and tax support policies, the policy intention can be better realized.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0
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