国际收支阶段演变的影响因素研究——基于有序logistic模型
发布时间：2018-11-07 21:13
【摘要】：一国国际收支平衡表及其构成不仅反映了这个国家目前所处的国际收支发展阶段,还反映出一国的资源z 赋、竞争力所在以及对外经济开放程度等.国际收支结构、阶段演变以及影响因素等问题研究有重要的现实意义和学术价值.本文首先基于传统"国际收支阶段假说",对国际收支阶段影响因素进行了机理分析;其次,根据国际收支发展阶段,对全球50个国家1998-2014年的国际收支数据进行阶段的实际划分;最后,在上述研究基础上引入有序logistic回归模型对国际收支阶段演变的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果表明:第一,人均GDP对国际收支阶段演变具有显著的正向作用,这符合Crowther的国际收支阶段假说;第二,金融深化程度(M2/GDP)对国际收支阶段演变具有显著的正向作用,实际有效汇率指数对国际收支阶段演变具有显著的负向作用,这两个变量的显著性在已有文献中并未出现,是本文重要的创新和贡献点.
[Abstract]:A country's balance of payments and its composition not only reflect the development stage of international balance of payments, but also reflect a country's resources, competitiveness and the degree of foreign economic openness. It is of great practical significance and academic value to study the structure of balance of payments, the evolution of stages and the influencing factors. Firstly, based on the traditional "balance of payments stage hypothesis", this paper analyzes the mechanism of the factors affecting the balance of payments stage. Secondly, according to the development stage of the balance of payments, the actual division of the balance of payments data of 50 countries in the world from 1998 to 2014 is carried out. Finally, based on the above research, an ordered logistic regression model is introduced to analyze the influencing factors of the evolution of the balance of payments. The empirical results show that: first, per capita GDP has a significant positive effect on the evolution of the balance-of-payments stage, which is in line with the Crowther hypothesis of the balance-of-payments stage; Second, the degree of financial deepening (M2/GDP) has a significant positive effect on the evolution of the balance of payments stage, and the real effective exchange rate index has a significant negative effect on the evolution of the balance of payments stage. The significance of these two variables is not found in the existing literature and is an important innovation and contribution point in this paper.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院;中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71273257,71532013) 国家留学基金~~
【分类号】：F746;F831
本文编号：2317586
[Abstract]:A country's balance of payments and its composition not only reflect the development stage of international balance of payments, but also reflect a country's resources, competitiveness and the degree of foreign economic openness. It is of great practical significance and academic value to study the structure of balance of payments, the evolution of stages and the influencing factors. Firstly, based on the traditional "balance of payments stage hypothesis", this paper analyzes the mechanism of the factors affecting the balance of payments stage. Secondly, according to the development stage of the balance of payments, the actual division of the balance of payments data of 50 countries in the world from 1998 to 2014 is carried out. Finally, based on the above research, an ordered logistic regression model is introduced to analyze the influencing factors of the evolution of the balance of payments. The empirical results show that: first, per capita GDP has a significant positive effect on the evolution of the balance-of-payments stage, which is in line with the Crowther hypothesis of the balance-of-payments stage; Second, the degree of financial deepening (M2/GDP) has a significant positive effect on the evolution of the balance of payments stage, and the real effective exchange rate index has a significant negative effect on the evolution of the balance of payments stage. The significance of these two variables is not found in the existing literature and is an important innovation and contribution point in this paper.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院;中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71273257,71532013) 国家留学基金~~
【分类号】：F746;F831
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