我国货币替代影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-24 19:50

【摘要】：货币替代是发展中国家在不断开放过程中出现的一种不可避免的问题。主要表现为本国居民对本币的币值稳定缺乏信心,或者本币的收益率较低,就转而将本币兑换成外币持有,从而外币在价值贮藏、交易媒介和价值尺度等货币职能方面全部或者部分替代本币。我国的金融体制正在进行不断改革,尤其是2005年进行了汇率制度改革,实行“以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节的、有管理的浮动汇率制度”。在这样的汇率制度下,更加有可能出现货币替代现象的加剧。本文对影响我国货币替代的因素进行了充分探索,搜集了2009年到2014年的数据,包括人民币汇率水平、国内生产总值、国外利率水平与国内利率水平的差异、国内通货膨胀率等,并基于现有学者的研究成果,对样本数据运用实证分析的方法,得出的主要结论有:一、汇率变动是导致我国货币替代的最主要因素。人们进行货币兑换的主要目的是规避汇率风险。这一货币替代特点提示我们:虽然我国当前货币替代程度较低,但随着我国资本账户的逐渐开放以及汇率体制的完善,人民币国际化进程的推进,我国仍有可能引发大规模的货币替代。二、国内生产总值、利率差异、通货膨胀率对我国货币替代的影响并不显著。总体上说,我国还未完全市场化,国内生产总值稳步增长,通货膨胀率并不高,从而导致对货币替代的解释比较有限。最后本文结合我国国情,提出了实施保证币值稳定的宏观经济政策、提高人民币的实际收益率、加强金融市场体系建设、提高人民币信誉、健立健全监管体系和预防体系、加强货币替代理论研究几点政策建议。
[Abstract]:Currency substitution is an inevitable problem in developing countries. This is mainly manifested in the lack of confidence in the stability of the value of the local currency, or in the low rate of return of the local currency, so that the local currency is converted into foreign currency to be held, thus the foreign currency is stored in value. The exchange medium and the value measure and so on monetary function aspect completely or partially replaces the local currency. China's financial system is undergoing continuous reform, especially in 2005, the exchange rate system reform, the implementation of "on the basis of market supply and demand, reference to a basket of currencies to adjust the managed floating exchange rate system." Under such an exchange rate regime, it is more likely that currency substitution will intensify. This paper makes a full exploration of the factors affecting the substitution of currency in China, and collects the data from 2009 to 2014, including RMB exchange rate level, GDP, the difference between foreign interest rate level and domestic interest rate level, domestic inflation rate and so on. Based on the research results of the existing scholars, this paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the sample data. The main conclusions are as follows: first, exchange rate change is the most important factor leading to the substitution of currency in China. The main purpose of currency exchange is to avoid exchange rate risk. The characteristics of this currency substitution suggest that although the degree of currency substitution in China is relatively low, with the gradual opening of our capital account and the improvement of the exchange rate system, the internationalization process of RMB is advancing. China still has the potential to trigger large-scale currency substitution. Second, the difference of GDP, interest rate and inflation rate have little effect on currency substitution in China. On the whole, our country is not completely market-oriented, the GDP is growing steadily, and the inflation rate is not high, which leads to the limited explanation of currency substitution. Finally, according to the situation of our country, this paper puts forward the macroeconomic policy to guarantee the stability of currency, to raise the real rate of return of RMB, to strengthen the construction of financial market system, to improve the credibility of RMB, to establish and improve the supervision system and prevention system. Strengthen the monetary substitution theory research several policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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