投资泡沫对上市公司业绩的影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-26 17:20
【摘要】：丹尼尔·格罗斯(2008)回顾美国160多年的投资泡沫演变史,发现投资泡沫对经济的影响具有两面性,短期对经济的负面影响较为突出,但是从长期来看,资本的快速累积会推动技术进步,在一定程度促进经济发展。在当前经济形势下,投资泡沫对经济发展的负面影响较为突出,但如果从长期和唯物辩证的角度来看,投资泡沫也有可能具有正反效应。丹尼尔·格罗斯从宏观上作出了解释,那么对于微观主体之一的上市企业,投资泡沫是否也会对其业绩产生积极的影响呢?本文选取中国A股市场医药制造业、汽车制造业等行业的样本数据,分析在投资泡沫的不同时期,行业中各家上市企业业绩的演变进程,一方面希望借此分析这些优质上市企业的成功经验,另一方面希望通过分析探索上市公司股票价值投资决策的内在逻辑。文章引入产出与资本投入的比值作为资本产出效率,用来衡量企业对资本的运营水平。认为市场上发生投资泡沫的时候,公司的资本投入会增加,如果企业资本投入导致研发投入增加或者进入新的行业则可能引起公司资本产出曲线的向上移动,因此当投资泡沫破灭,企业的资本投入回到原来水平的时候公司的资本产出效率不会回到原有水平,而是会有实质性提升。为了验证中国A股市场上是否存在投资泡沫发生以后资本产出效率提升的公司,本文选取净资产收益率、总资产收益率和营业净利润率作为衡量资本产出效率的财务指标。通过F-O模型找出中国A股市场存在泡沫的年份,找出投资泡沫发生转折的时点作为研究的基准时点,筛选A股市场符合条件的样本企业,分析投资泡沫演变过程中样本企业的业绩变化,并同行业平均值进行对比,进而论证投资泡沫发生以后有些企业表现得比同行业其他公司更好。实证结果显示投资泡沫发生以后有些企业的竞争力得到了提升,业绩表现优于同行业,这与投资泡沫期间宏观经济环境的变化、公司经验管理理念、公司的资本运作、投资决策与行为有关。
[Abstract]:Daniel Gross (2008) reviews the evolution of the investment bubble in the United States for more than 160 years and finds that the impact of the investment bubble on the economy has two sides, and the negative impact on the economy in the short term is more prominent, but in the long run, The rapid accumulation of capital will promote technological progress and promote economic development to a certain extent. In the current economic situation, the negative impact of investment bubble on economic development is more prominent, but if viewed from the long-term and materialistic dialectical point of view, investment bubble may also have a positive and negative effect. Daniel Gross explained from the macro point of view, so for one of the main micro-listed companies, the investment bubble will also have a positive impact on their performance? This paper selects the sample data of Chinese A share market, such as pharmaceutical manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and so on, to analyze the evolution process of the performance of each listed enterprise in the industry during the different periods of investment bubble. On the one hand, we hope to analyze the successful experiences of these high quality listed enterprises, on the other hand, we hope to explore the inherent logic of the stock value investment decision of listed companies. In this paper, the ratio of output to capital input is introduced as the efficiency of capital output, which is used to measure the level of capital operation. It is believed that when there is an investment bubble in the market, the company's capital investment will increase. If the enterprise capital investment leads to an increase in R & D investment or entering a new industry, it may cause the upward movement of the company's capital output curve. Therefore, when the investment bubble burst and the capital investment of the enterprise returned to the original level, the efficiency of the company's capital output will not return to the original level, but there will be substantial improvement. In order to verify whether there are companies with higher efficiency of capital output after the emergence of the investment bubble in China's A-share market, this paper selects the return on net assets, the return on total assets and the net operating profit rate as the financial indicators to measure the efficiency of capital output. Through the F-O model to find out the year when the A-share market bubble exists, to find out the turning point of the investment bubble as the benchmark point of study, and to screen the sample enterprises that meet the requirements of A-share market. This paper analyzes the performance changes of sample enterprises in the process of investment bubble evolution, and compares with the average of the industry, and then proves that some enterprises perform better than other companies in the same industry after the investment bubble occurs. The empirical results show that the competitiveness of some enterprises has been improved after the emergence of the investment bubble, and their performance is superior to that of the same industry, which is related to the changes in the macroeconomic environment during the investment bubble, the concept of corporate experience management, and the capital operation of the company. Investment decisions are related to behavior.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F272.5
本文编号：2359164
[Abstract]:Daniel Gross (2008) reviews the evolution of the investment bubble in the United States for more than 160 years and finds that the impact of the investment bubble on the economy has two sides, and the negative impact on the economy in the short term is more prominent, but in the long run, The rapid accumulation of capital will promote technological progress and promote economic development to a certain extent. In the current economic situation, the negative impact of investment bubble on economic development is more prominent, but if viewed from the long-term and materialistic dialectical point of view, investment bubble may also have a positive and negative effect. Daniel Gross explained from the macro point of view, so for one of the main micro-listed companies, the investment bubble will also have a positive impact on their performance? This paper selects the sample data of Chinese A share market, such as pharmaceutical manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and so on, to analyze the evolution process of the performance of each listed enterprise in the industry during the different periods of investment bubble. On the one hand, we hope to analyze the successful experiences of these high quality listed enterprises, on the other hand, we hope to explore the inherent logic of the stock value investment decision of listed companies. In this paper, the ratio of output to capital input is introduced as the efficiency of capital output, which is used to measure the level of capital operation. It is believed that when there is an investment bubble in the market, the company's capital investment will increase. If the enterprise capital investment leads to an increase in R & D investment or entering a new industry, it may cause the upward movement of the company's capital output curve. Therefore, when the investment bubble burst and the capital investment of the enterprise returned to the original level, the efficiency of the company's capital output will not return to the original level, but there will be substantial improvement. In order to verify whether there are companies with higher efficiency of capital output after the emergence of the investment bubble in China's A-share market, this paper selects the return on net assets, the return on total assets and the net operating profit rate as the financial indicators to measure the efficiency of capital output. Through the F-O model to find out the year when the A-share market bubble exists, to find out the turning point of the investment bubble as the benchmark point of study, and to screen the sample enterprises that meet the requirements of A-share market. This paper analyzes the performance changes of sample enterprises in the process of investment bubble evolution, and compares with the average of the industry, and then proves that some enterprises perform better than other companies in the same industry after the investment bubble occurs. The empirical results show that the competitiveness of some enterprises has been improved after the emergence of the investment bubble, and their performance is superior to that of the same industry, which is related to the changes in the macroeconomic environment during the investment bubble, the concept of corporate experience management, and the capital operation of the company. Investment decisions are related to behavior.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F272.5
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