脱欧是“去全球化”吗——基于欧盟银行业一体化的GARCH研究
发布时间：2018-12-19 18:40
【摘要】：英国脱欧事件的触发,或将开启"去全球化"进程的新格局。本文着眼于英国脱欧事件,以银行业一体化为视角,基于多元GARCH-DCC模型,通过测算样本各国银行业动态时变相关系数,对"去全球化"进程展开深入思考。研究表明,基于各国异质性,全球化发展具有非中性的特征。以英国为例,英国与欧盟各国银行业一体化程度并不一致,与美国的一体化程度仍高于绝大部分欧盟国家。研究认为,"全球化"并没有完全逆转,未来经济全面扩张的"全球化"将向选择性的"全球化"模式转变。
[Abstract]:The trigger of Brexit could start a new pattern of deglobalisation. This paper focuses on the Brexit event, from the perspective of banking integration, based on the multiple GARCH-DCC model, by measuring the dynamic time-varying correlation coefficient of the banking industry in the sample countries, the "deglobalization" process is deeply considered. The research shows that the development of globalization is non-neutral based on the heterogeneity of each country. In the case of Britain, for example, the degree of banking integration between the UK and the European Union is not the same, and the degree of integration with the United States is still higher than that of the vast majority of European Union countries. The study holds that "globalization" has not been completely reversed, and that the "globalization" of economic expansion in the future will be transformed into a selective mode of "globalization".
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“金砖银行互利共赢合作模式及风险防范机制研究”(15BJL077) 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目“首都新定位下CBD高端产业国际化发展研究”(16JDYJB026)
【分类号】：F831.2
，
本文编号：2387301
[Abstract]:The trigger of Brexit could start a new pattern of deglobalisation. This paper focuses on the Brexit event, from the perspective of banking integration, based on the multiple GARCH-DCC model, by measuring the dynamic time-varying correlation coefficient of the banking industry in the sample countries, the "deglobalization" process is deeply considered. The research shows that the development of globalization is non-neutral based on the heterogeneity of each country. In the case of Britain, for example, the degree of banking integration between the UK and the European Union is not the same, and the degree of integration with the United States is still higher than that of the vast majority of European Union countries. The study holds that "globalization" has not been completely reversed, and that the "globalization" of economic expansion in the future will be transformed into a selective mode of "globalization".
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“金砖银行互利共赢合作模式及风险防范机制研究”(15BJL077) 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目“首都新定位下CBD高端产业国际化发展研究”(16JDYJB026)
【分类号】：F831.2
，
本文编号：2387301
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