从量化宽松到量化紧缩——美联储缩减资产负债表的决定因素及其影响

发布时间：2019-01-08 19:14

【摘要】：作为货币政策正常化的第二阶段,美联储将在2017年开始缩减因危机后实行的量化宽松政策而形成的规模庞大的资产负债表,并指出缩表结束后的证券资产持有规模将不会大于为有效执行货币政策所必须维持的水平。本文认为,决定美联储资产负债表长期规模的主要因素是美联储负债中的流通中货币量和准备金余额的长期水平,前者取决于美联储对未来名义GDP增长趋势的估计,后者则取决于美联储对未来货币政策执行框架的选择。如果美联储倾向于采用危机前的公开市场操作办法,准备金余额的长期水平将与银行交易性存款余额决定的必要准备金水平趋于一致,美联储资产负债表的长期规模将因此显著低于目前的水平。相反,如果依照本文所预计的,美联储将继续危机后实行的利率走廊机制,以超额准备金利率和隔夜反向回购利率控制联邦基金利率的变动范围,准备金余额的长期水平就将由银行对准备金的需求来决定。在这种情况下,美联储资产负债表的规模虽会在目前的基础上缩减,但程度相对有限,因而对经济的负面影响较小。此外,和危机前的以提高联邦基金利率作为紧缩性货币政策的主要工具不同,本次量化紧缩政策的特点是美联储可以同时运用短期利率和资产负债表两种政策工具,意味着美联储能够通过资产负债表的缩减来部分地取代联邦基金利率的提高,而不至于改变紧缩性货币政策的总体效果,这在一定程度上将缓和升息对经济造成的负面影响。
[Abstract]:In the second phase of normalizing monetary policy, the Fed will begin to scale back its massive balance sheet as a result of post-crisis quantitative easing in 2017. It also points out that the holdings of securities assets after the end of the abbreviated statement will not be larger than the level that must be maintained for the effective implementation of monetary policy. This paper holds that the main factors determining the long-term size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are the amount of money in circulation and the long-term level of reserve balance in the Federal Reserve's liabilities. The former depends on the Federal Reserve's estimate of the future trend of nominal GDP growth. The latter depends on the Fed's choice of a future monetary policy implementation framework. If the Fed prefers an open market approach prior to the crisis, the long-term level of reserve balances will be aligned with the necessary reserve levels determined by the bank's transactional deposit balances. As a result, the long-term size of the Fed's balance sheet will be significantly below current levels. Instead, if, as expected, the Fed continues the post-crisis interest-rate corridor mechanism, it will control the range of federal funds rates at the rate of excess reserves and the overnight reverse repo rate. The long-term level of reserve balances will be determined by the banks' demand for reserves. In this case, the size of the Fed's balance sheet will shrink from its current level, but to a relatively limited extent, with less negative impact on the economy. Moreover, unlike pre-crisis moves to raise the federal funds rate as the main tool for tightening monetary policy, this quantitative tightening is characterized by the Fed's ability to use both short-term interest rates and balance sheets. This means that the Fed can partially replace the increase in the federal funds rate by shrinking its balance sheet without changing the overall effect of tight monetary policy, which will partly mitigate the negative impact of the rate hike on the economy.
【作者单位】：中国银行国际金融研究所;
【分类号】：F827.12

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