金融脆弱性与货币政策新框架选择

发布时间：2019-01-14 08:27

【摘要】：通过理论分析,区分了货币政策目标是否包含金融稳定两种情况下的政策效力以及框架选择。在分析传统货币政策框架不包含金融稳定目标时,借鉴Ball模型,构建了资产价格波动与货币政策反应之间的理论模型,模型表明:央行实施货币政策进行宏观调控采取的最优利率不仅取决于当期的产出与通胀缺口,同时还取决于资产价格变化及其随机扰动项,并就传统货币政策框架选择进行了探讨。在分析新货币政策框架包含金融稳定目标时,通过对Agur(2009)、Ague and Demertzis(2010)模型框架的修正与扩展,详细分析金融稳定对中央银行货币政策规则的影响。结果表明:如果中央银行的货币政策规则不考虑金融稳定目标,将导致最优利率出现系统性的低估,造成这种低估的原因或许在于未能长远考虑金融脆弱性所带来的通胀成本和潜在产出损失,造成货币政策决策的狭隘性与滞后性。因此考虑现实的金融脆弱性,现行的货币政策应该将金融稳定纳入其目标框架。相应政策启示是:建立科学的货币政策引导规则、加强社会沟通,发挥好市场预期引导作用、货币政策与宏观审慎政策协调搭配。
[Abstract]:Through the theoretical analysis, the paper distinguishes whether the monetary policy objective includes the financial stability and the policy effectiveness and the choice of the framework. When analyzing that the traditional monetary policy framework does not contain the goal of financial stability, the theoretical model between asset price fluctuation and monetary policy response is constructed by using Ball model as reference. The model shows that the optimal interest rate adopted by the central bank to carry out the macro-control of monetary policy depends not only on the current output and inflation gap, but also on the changes in asset prices and their random disturbances. It also discusses the choice of traditional monetary policy framework. This paper analyzes the influence of financial stability on the monetary policy rules of the central bank through the revision and extension of the Agur (2009), Ague and Demertzis (2010) model framework when the new monetary policy framework contains the objectives of financial stability. The results show that if the monetary policy rules of the central bank do not consider the objective of financial stability, it will lead to the systematic undervaluation of the optimal interest rate. The reason for this underestimation may lie in the failure to consider the inflation cost and potential output loss caused by financial fragility in the long run, resulting in the narrowness and lag of monetary policy decisions. Therefore, considering the real financial fragility, the current monetary policy should include financial stability in its target framework. The corresponding policy enlightenments are: establishing scientific monetary policy guiding rules, strengthening social communication, giving play to market expectation guidance, and coordinating monetary policy with macroprudential policy.
【作者单位】：南昌航空大学经济管理学院;南昌航空大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“资产价格波动与商业银行脆弱性”(17BJY203)
【分类号】：F821.0;F831

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