前瞻性货币政策的演进逻辑

发布时间：2019-04-19 12:32

【摘要】：前瞻性货币政策理念在各国央行实践中已被广为接受。本文从理论和实践两个层面对前瞻性货币政策演进的基本逻辑进行深入阐释。在理论层面,本文提出前瞻性货币政策兴起的三个彼此联系但又并不完全相同的历史背景,即卢卡斯批判、通胀目标制以及货币政策反应方程领域的研究推进。在实践层面,本文分析了市场预期引导渠道(即央行沟通和媒体报道)在前瞻性货币政策操作中的应用逻辑,并对货币政策前瞻指引的前提条件、实践种类、传导路径和有效性进行系统梳理。综合来看,虽然前瞻性货币政策理念的兴起源于不同的历史背景,但是中央银行对预期概念的认可、对预期变量的应用以及对预期引导的重视都成为前瞻性货币政策从理论走向实践的基本逻辑。
[Abstract]:The concept of forward-looking monetary policy has been widely accepted in the practice of central banks. This paper deeply explains the basic logic of forward-looking monetary policy evolution from both theoretical and practical aspects. On the theoretical level, this paper puts forward three historical backgrounds, namely Lucas criticism, inflation targeting and monetary policy response equation, which are related to each other but not exactly the same historical background of the rise of forward-looking monetary policy. At the practical level, this paper analyzes the application logic of market expectation guidance channels (i.e., central bank communication and media reports) in the operation of forward-looking monetary policy, and also analyzes the preconditions and types of practice for the forward-looking guidance of monetary policy. The conduction path and effectiveness are systematically combed. Overall, although the rise of forward-looking monetary policy ideas stems from different historical backgrounds, the central bank's acceptance of the concept of expectation, The application of expected variables and the emphasis on anticipatory guidance have become the basic logic of forward-looking monetary policy from theory to practice.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心;中国人民大学财政金融学院货币金融系;中国人民大学房地产金融研究所;中国人民大学财政金融学院;
【分类号】：F822.0

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