国库现金管理对货币供给和利率影响的实证检验

发布时间：2019-06-07 10:29

【摘要】：文章以货币供给理论为基础,从理论和实证角度研究了国库现金管理对基础货币和货币供应量的影响,并实证检验了国库现金管理对货币市场利率的影响、研究发现:国库现金管理商业银行定期存款对基础货币和货币供应量均产生影响,国库现金管理商业银行定期存款与基础货币之间存在长期稳定的关系国库现金管理中标利率与货币市场利率Shibor之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,且是Shibor变动的格兰杰原因。在现阶段,我国国库现金商业银行定期存款引起基础货币和货币供应量M2的增幅均在1%以内。这表明,目前我国国库现金管理对货币供给的影响均较小。但随着地方国库现金管理的启动,国库现金管理对货币供给影响将愈加显著。为了避免国库现金管理对货币政策带来较大冲击,国库现金管理的规模应控制在1万亿元以内。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of money supply, this paper studies the influence of treasury cash management on basic money and money supply from the theoretical and empirical point of view, and empirically tests the influence of treasury cash management on money market interest rate. It is found that the time deposits of treasury cash management commercial banks have an impact on both the basic money and the money supply. There is a long-term stable relationship between time deposits and basic currency in treasury cash management commercial banks. There is a stable equilibrium relationship between the winning interest rate of treasury cash management and the money market interest rate Shibor, and it is the Granger reason for the change of Shibor. At present, the time deposit of treasury cash commercial banks causes the increase of basic money and money supply M2 by less than 1%. This shows that the influence of treasury cash management on money supply is small at present. However, with the start of local treasury cash management, the impact of treasury cash management on money supply will become more and more significant. In order to avoid the great impact of treasury cash management on monetary policy, the scale of treasury cash management should be controlled within 1 trillion yuan.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;中国建设银行业务处理中心;
【分类号】：F822.2

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