考虑指标关联性的上市证券公司综合评价

发布时间：2019-06-09 19:20

【摘要】：作为连接证券市场资金供求双方的桥梁和纽带,证券公司在促进证券流通、资金流动、市场价格机制形成、投资者合法权益保护等方面起着重要作用。对其综合实力做出合理、公正、客观的评价非常有必要。在利用传统多属性决策分析理论对证券公司的财务报表进行分析评价时,各个指标通常被假定为是相互独立的,然而实际决策问题中评价对象的属性之间必然存在着关联性,这种关联性在公司的财务指标中表现得尤为明显。因此在传统评价方法中,每个属性的效用都会通过这种关联性在其它属性中被重复计算,造成评价结果“超估计”。本文的最终目标是对全国上市证券公司的综合实力做出评价,基于此目的,本文首先分析、总结了国内外学者对此评价所采取的方法与理论,指出传统的评价理论缺少对属性关联性的研究;其次通过对比多个上市公司评价方法,本文拟采用证据推理对能代表证券公司综合实力的9个财务指标进行证据融合;然后通过改变决策矩阵中的属性权重向量来解决属性之间的关联性,与传统真正意义上的剔除关联性方法相比,该方法的复杂程度低于后者,而且客观性强;最后在剔除属性关联性的基础上,借助证据推理对全国20家上市证券公司进行算例分析,验证上述方法和理论在解决实际问题中所显现出的优良特性。
[Abstract]:As a bridge and link between the supply and demand of funds in the securities market, securities companies play an important role in promoting the circulation of securities, the flow of funds, the formation of market price mechanism, the protection of investors' legitimate rights and interests, and so on. It is necessary to make a reasonable, fair and objective evaluation of its comprehensive strength. When using the traditional multi-attribute decision analysis theory to analyze and evaluate the financial statements of securities companies, each index is usually assumed to be independent of each other. However, there must be a correlation between the attributes of the evaluation objects in the actual decision-making problem. This correlation is particularly evident in the company's financial indicators. Therefore, in the traditional evaluation method, the utility of each attribute will be repeated in other attributes through this correlation, resulting in the evaluation result "overestimated". The ultimate goal of this paper is to evaluate the comprehensive strength of listed securities companies in China. Based on this purpose, this paper first analyzes and summarizes the methods and theories adopted by scholars at home and abroad for this evaluation. It is pointed out that the traditional evaluation theory lacks the research on the relevance of attributes. Secondly, by comparing the evaluation methods of many listed companies, this paper intends to use evidence reasoning to merge the nine financial indicators that can represent the comprehensive strength of securities companies. Then the correlation between attributes is solved by changing the attribute weight vector in the decision matrix. Compared with the traditional method of eliminating correlation in the real sense, the complexity of this method is lower than that of the latter, and the objectivity is strong. Finally, on the basis of eliminating attribute relevance, 20 listed securities companies in China are analyzed by evidence reasoning to verify the excellent characteristics of the above methods and theories in solving practical problems.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.39

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