供给侧改革背景下需要将PPI纳入通货膨胀目标吗

发布时间：2019-06-15 09:42

【摘要】：供给侧改革背景下,我国生产者物价指数(PPI)波动性势必会上升,给稳定通货膨胀带来新的挑战,价格波动从PPI向CPI传导是否显著以及是否需要将PPI纳入通货膨胀目标成为值得深思的问题。本文引入连续小波变换分析框架,将PPI指数细分为生产者购进价格指数和生产者出厂价格指数,深入研究了二者和居民消费价格指数之间的领先滞后关系以及价格传导机制。结果表明,短期内存在PPI和CPI之间双向价格传导,二者互为领先指标;长期只存在从PPI到CPI的价格传导,PPI是CPI的领先指标。为了稳定通货膨胀,应当将PPI指数尤其是生产者购进价格指数纳入通货膨胀目标,在提升货币政策有效性的同时减少政策时滞。
[Abstract]:Under the background of supply-side reform, the volatility of (PPI) in producer price index of our country is bound to rise, which brings new challenges to stable inflation. Whether the transmission of price fluctuation from PPI to CPI is significant and whether it is necessary to include PPI in inflation target is a question worth pondering. In this paper, the continuous wavelet transform analysis framework is introduced, and the PPI index is subdivided into producer purchase price index and producer ex-factory price index, and the leading lag relationship between them and consumer price index and the price transmission mechanism are deeply studied. The results show that there is two-way price transmission between PPI and CPI in the short term, which is the leading index of each other, and only the price transmission from PPI to CPI exists in the long run, and PPI is the leading index of CPI. In order to stabilize inflation, the PPI index, especially the producer purchase price index, should be included in the inflation target to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy while reducing the policy lag.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人民币加入SDR、一篮子货币定值与中国宏观经济的均衡研究”(16ZDA032) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“人民币国际化进程中资本账户开放及其风险防范研究”(16YJA790040)资助
【分类号】：F726;F822.5

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