央行沟通、市场预期与货币政策工具组合的效果研究

发布时间：2019-06-29 15:46

【摘要】：近年来,随着预期管理逐渐成为货币政策调控的重要任务,各国央行开始逐渐摒弃以往的"隐秘性文化",逐渐转向"开放化"与"透明化",并且更乐于利用央行沟通的方式来实现货币政策目标,因此央行沟通已经成为一种新型的货币政策干预工具。本文在对相关文献进行全面梳理的基础上,通过构建两个VEC模型,分析了央行沟通对信贷市场与资本市场产生的影响。研究结果表明,央行沟通对信贷市场与资本市场会产生显著的影响,且书面沟通的影响效果更强,央行沟通同时也会对市场预期与传统货币政策干预工具产生较为显著的影响,这种影响的效果最终也会传导至信贷市场与资本市场。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the expected management gradually becoming an important task of monetary policy regulation and control, central banks began to gradually abandon the previous "secret culture", gradually turn to "openness" and "transparency", and are more willing to use the way of central bank communication to achieve monetary policy objectives, so central bank communication has become a new type of monetary policy intervention tool. On the basis of comprehensively combing the relevant literature, this paper analyzes the influence of central bank communication on credit market and capital market by constructing two VEC models. The results show that the central bank communication will have a significant impact on the credit market and the capital market, and the written communication will have a stronger effect. At the same time, the central bank communication will also have a significant impact on market expectations and traditional monetary policy intervention tools, and the effect will eventually be transmitted to the credit market and the capital market.
【作者单位】：华东交通大学经济管理学院;华东交通大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“央行沟通与实际干预工具的组合匹配及其转换时机”(13BJY173)
【分类号】：F822.0;F832

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