中央银行外汇干预的国际经验——基于面板工具变量法的分析

发布时间：2019-07-04 08:04

【摘要】：外汇干预作为一项重要的政策工具被各国央行广泛采用,在当前中国外汇干预存在争议的背景下,总结中央银行外汇干预国际经验具有重要意义。本文选取哥伦比亚和新西兰两个代表性国家总结其外汇干预经验,然后基于面板工具变量法,对全球23个国家和地区的外汇干预有效性进行实证分析。结果表明,中央银行正向外汇干预对名义双边汇率和实际有效汇率均有减缓波动的作用,达到了稳定汇率的效果。从现阶段来看,当前外汇干预作为维护汇率稳定、调节内外平衡的政策权限,应该予以保留。我国中央银行要实现合理的干预行为,需要有恰当的干预时机、灵活的干预方式、与之协调的干预目标,以及配套的宏观经济政策和逐步完善的市场环境。
[Abstract]:As an important policy tool, foreign exchange intervention is widely used by central banks. Under the background of controversial foreign exchange intervention in China, it is of great significance to sum up the international experience of central bank foreign exchange intervention. In this paper, two representative countries, Colombia and New Zealand, are selected to summarize their experience of foreign exchange intervention, and then based on the panel tool variable method, the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in 23 countries and regions in the world is empirically analyzed. The results show that the positive foreign exchange intervention of the central bank can slow down the fluctuation of both the nominal bilateral exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate, and achieve the effect of stabilizing the exchange rate. From the present stage, the current foreign exchange intervention, as a policy authority to maintain exchange rate stability and adjust internal and external balance, should be retained. In order to realize reasonable intervention behavior, the central bank of our country needs appropriate intervention time, flexible intervention mode, coordinated intervention goal, supporting macroeconomic policy and gradually perfect market environment.
【作者单位】：渤海银行博士后工作站;北京师范大学博士后流动站;天津财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F831.6

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