基于经济结构视角的中国“中等收入陷阱”规避研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 16:27

本文关键词：基于经济结构视角的中国“中等收入陷阱”规避研究　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中等收入陷阱描述的是这样一种经济状态,当低收入国家突破低收入达到中等收入水平后,由于不能顺利实现经济发展方式的转变或受外部冲击,导致持续增长动力不足和快速发展中积累的社会矛盾集中爆发,从而出现经济增长回落或长期停滞。目前中国正值经济结构调整的关键时期,中国经济自改革开放后高速增长,同时引发社会、经济发展问题日益凸显,并相互交织、相互作用,在很大程度上增加中国落入中等收入陷阱的风险,能否解决经济结构失衡问题是中国规避中等收入陷阱的关键所在。全文以总结国内外关于中等收入陷阱的研究文献为基础,分析中等收入陷阱的实质与特征,采用文献分析法、系统分析法、实证分析法,将比较分析与归纳演绎相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合,并根据广义经济结构的定义,具体从需求结构、产业结构、城乡结构、收入分配结构四个层次研究中国规避中等收入陷阱的问题。结合中国经济结构现状,分析中国规避中等收入陷阱在经济增长、金融、人口、公共服务、国际竞争等方面的制约因素,认为经济结构失衡使居民消费率低下、产业结构难以升级、城镇化滞后、收入差距过大等问题并发是致使上述制约因素的主要原因。对此进行实证分析,首先利用国际宏观经济数据建立面板数据模型分析在不同的收入水平下经济结构对经济增长的动力机制,其次建立多元回归模型分析中国经济结构与收入水平的计量经济关系。并归纳巴西和马来西亚落入中等收入陷阱的失败教训,以及日本和韩国跨越中等收入陷阱的成功经验,从国际经验分析对中国经济发展的启示。通过分析可知,在不同的收入状态下经济结构对经济增长的动力机制可知,各个要素在不同的收入水平经济结构对经济增长的作用各不相同,上一阶段的动力机制并不适用于下一阶段,规避中等收入陷阱需适时调整经济结构。中国居民消费率与城镇化水平对人均GDP的影响并不显著,基尼系数与人均GDP呈负相关关系,调整产业结构是拉动中国经济增长的关键。最后,以经济结构为视角,根据上述研究结果提出中国规避中等收入陷阱的建议。
[Abstract]:The middle-income trap describes an economic situation in which low-income countries fail to realize the transformation of their economic development patterns or are subject to external shocks when they break through the low income level and reach the middle-income level. This has led to a concentrated outbreak of social contradictions accumulated in the course of sustained growth and accumulation in rapid development, resulting in a decline in economic growth or long-term stagnation. At present, China is in a critical period of economic restructuring. The rapid growth of China's economy since the reform and opening up, at the same time triggered the social and economic development problems increasingly prominent, and intertwined, interaction, to a large extent increase the risk of China falling into the middle-income trap. Whether we can solve the imbalance of economic structure is the key for China to avoid the middle-income trap. This paper analyzes the essence and characteristics of the middle-income trap on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature on the middle-income trap. Literature analysis, system analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis and inductive deduction, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis combined, and according to the definition of the generalized economic structure, the specific structure of demand. Industrial structure, urban and rural structure, income distribution structure four levels of research on China to avoid middle-income trap. Combined with the current situation of China's economic structure, analysis of China to avoid middle-income trap in economic growth, finance. Population, public services, international competition and other constraints, the economic structure of the imbalance caused by the low consumption rate of residents, industrial structure is difficult to upgrade, urbanization lags behind. The problem of excessive income gap is the main reason for the above factors. Firstly, the panel data model is established by using international macroeconomic data to analyze the dynamic mechanism of economic structure on economic growth under different income levels. Secondly, we establish a multivariate regression model to analyze the econometric relationship between Chinese economic structure and income level, and conclude the failure lessons of Brazil and Malaysia falling into the middle-income trap. As well as Japan and South Korea's successful experience of crossing the middle-income trap, from the international experience analysis of China's economic development enlightenment. Under different income state, the dynamic mechanism of economic structure to economic growth can be known, each element in different income level economic structure to economic growth function is different. The motive mechanism of the previous stage is not suitable for the next stage. To avoid the middle-income trap, it is necessary to adjust the economic structure at the right time. The influence of the consumption rate and urbanization level of Chinese residents on GDP per capita is not significant. Gini coefficient has a negative correlation with per capita GDP. Adjusting the industrial structure is the key to stimulate China's economic growth. Finally, from the perspective of economic structure. According to the above research results, China proposes to avoid the middle-income trap.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124.7

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