江苏省能源结构优化的动态机理分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 06:21

本文关键词：江苏省能源结构优化的动态机理分析　出处：《江苏大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：江苏省能源结构形势严峻,煤炭在一次能源消费中占比约70%,燃煤发电占比更是高达80%,导致巨大环境压力。但能源结构优化并非易事,需要从经济学角度阐述战略路径与对策。本文力图从能源结构优化的经济和环境收益切入,从供需两侧提出相应的优化策略,揭示出江苏省能源结构优化的路径及对策建议。全文总共包含七章,其中第一章主要内容为问题的提出、研究现状及构建研究框架,作为开篇之章,第一章从国际国内的宏观能源态势出发,指出当前国际国内能源形势严峻,江苏省作为经济发达省份为国家能源发展分忧责无旁贷,然而通过与广东对比发现江苏省能源结构形势落后,与自身经济实力不匹配需要进行优化,并基于此查阅研究现状和构建研究框架。第二章主要内容为理论基础,为研究江苏省能源供需发展,本文运用的主要理论包括可持续发展理论、系统演化理论以及相应研究方法,并提出对于当前中国和江苏而言,能源结构优化本质是能源结构多样化,其特征是能源效率持续提升和二氧化碳排放持续减少。第三章和第四章主要探讨能源结构优化有何经济和环境收益。第三章为测算江苏省能源结构优化能否提升能源利用效率,分别运用香浓-维纳多样性指数和DEA对其进行测算,发现江苏省能源结构多样性和能源利用效率处于全国中下水平,能源结构多样化是能提升能源利用效率的,能源结构多样化每提升1,能源效率提升12%左右。第四章运用LMDI模型确定江苏省碳排放中的能源结构影响,通过检验京津冀、长三角和珠三角所属7省市的脱钩效应后以面板滞后工具量化能源结构、产业结构、技术创新、开放程度以及教育水平对碳排放的影响,预测江苏省碳排放的峰值及到来时间并对比其在七省市中的水平。第五章在调研江苏省各类能源消费的基础上运用墨兰指数验证江苏省各市能源结构是否存在异质性,并以空间计量模型分析江苏省能源结构的影响因素,为能源结构优化提供相应路径。第六章指出能源供需结构优化需实现能源供需均衡,而能源结构优化的核心思想为“用煤尽量发电,用电尽量清洁”,故而利用系统动力学模型模拟江苏能源结构优化时的能源效率和碳排放的稳定性,并设计开发非化石能源、控制煤炭消费、调整产业结构和征收环境税四个策略,发现同时使用发展非化石能源、控制煤炭消费、以产业结构优化以及征收环境税策略组合可尽早实现提升能效和降低排放,即能源结构和产业结构协同优化更有利于实现江苏省能源转型。第七章为全文总结,并指出文章的下一步研究方向。总而言之,全文从国际国内的宏观能源形势入手,运用建模和调研两类研究方法从理论和实证方面得出能源结构优化对江苏省经济发展和环境保护的意义重大,并从供给和需求两个方面提出江苏省能源结构优化的策略。
[Abstract]:The situation of energy structure in Jiangsu Province is severe, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption is about 70%, and the proportion of coal-fired power generation is as high as 80%, which leads to great environmental pressure. However, optimization of energy structure is not easy. It is necessary to expound the strategic path and countermeasures from the angle of economics. This paper tries to cut into the economic and environmental benefits of energy structure optimization and puts forward the corresponding optimization strategies from both sides of supply and demand. This paper reveals the path and countermeasures of energy structure optimization in Jiangsu Province. There are seven chapters in this paper. The first chapter is mainly about the problem, the research status and the construction of the research framework, as the opening chapter. The first chapter starts from the international and domestic macro-energy situation, pointing out that the current domestic and international energy situation is grim, Jiangsu Province as an economically developed province is duty-bound for the national energy development. However, by comparing with Guangdong Province, it is found that the energy structure of Jiangsu Province is backward and needs to be optimized because of the mismatch with its own economic strength. The second chapter is the main content of the theoretical basis, in order to study the development of energy supply and demand in Jiangsu Province, the main theories used in this paper include the theory of sustainable development. The theory of system evolution and the corresponding research methods, and it is pointed out that the essence of energy structure optimization is diversification of energy structure for China and Jiangsu at present. Chapter 3 and 4th mainly discuss the economic and environmental benefits of energy structure optimization. The third chapter is to estimate whether the energy structure optimization can be promoted in Jiangsu province. Energy efficiency. The Shanng-Wiener diversity index and DEA were used to measure it, and it was found that the energy structure diversity and energy utilization efficiency of Jiangsu Province were in the middle and lower level of the whole country. The diversification of energy structure can improve the efficiency of energy use. The energy efficiency is improved by about 12%. Chapter 4th uses LMDI model to determine the energy structure influence in the carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province, through the test of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. After the decoupling effect of the seven provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the impact of energy structure, industrial structure, technological innovation, openness and education level on carbon emissions was quantified by panel lag tools. Predict the peak and arrival time of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province and compare their levels in seven provinces and cities. Chapter 5th verifies whether there are differences in the energy structure of Jiangsu Province by using the ink orchid index on the basis of investigation of all kinds of energy consumption in Jiangsu Province. Quality. The spatial econometric model is used to analyze the influencing factors of energy structure in Jiangsu Province, which provides the corresponding path for the optimization of energy structure. Chapter 6th points out that energy supply and demand balance should be realized in the optimization of energy supply and demand structure. The core idea of energy structure optimization is "to use coal as much as possible to generate electricity and to use electricity as clean as possible", so the energy efficiency and carbon emission stability of Jiangsu energy structure optimization are simulated by system dynamics model. And the design and development of non-fossil energy, control of coal consumption, adjustment of industrial structure and collection of environmental tax four strategies, found that the simultaneous use of non-fossil energy to control coal consumption. Optimization of industrial structure and collection of environmental tax strategy combination can improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions as soon as possible, that is, energy structure and industrial structure coordination optimization is more conducive to the realization of energy transformation in Jiangsu Province. Chapter 7th is the summary of the full text. And pointed out the next research direction of the article. In a word, this paper starts with the domestic and international macro energy situation. Using two kinds of research methods, modeling and investigation, it is of great significance to optimize the energy structure for the economic development and environmental protection of Jiangsu Province from the theoretical and empirical aspects. The strategy of energy structure optimization in Jiangsu Province is put forward from two aspects of supply and demand.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2

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