基于引力模型的中国省际流入人口的行业分布

发布时间：2018-01-08 15:11

本文关键词：基于引力模型的中国省际流入人口的行业分布　出处：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来中国流动人口的规模增速很快,对地区经济发展影响也日益增大。流动人口的管理需要依据流动人口就业结构及其统计数据。流动人口就业结构分析可以采用普查和抽样调查等方法,其缺点是这类方法的时效性差且成本高。另一种分析方法是构建流动人口就业结构模型。目前,还没有针对中国全省域全行业的分析模型。个别行业模型不能满足当前经济结构调整背景下政府和公众对全行业的分析需要。为此,本文试图构建流动人口就业结构的统计模型。引力模型常用于估计人口迁移流量。本文运用改进的引力模型测算省际流入人口就业结构的行业流入率与反映各行业对流动人口依赖程度的行业依赖度,估计中国省际流入人口行业流入量,从省域和行业两个维度分析流入人口的省域分布结构以及各省域流入人口的行业就业结构。本文还定义了省域行业集中度,用于描述省际流入人口就业的行业集中情况,探究省际行业流入人数与行业就业人数需要的大小关系,为地方政府更好指导人口流动和就业工作提供数据支持。本文还将2010年和2013年中国行业省际流入人口引力模型进行了对比。本文的分析结果表明,省际流入人口主要从事制造业、批发和零售业、租赁和商务服务业;且这三个行业劳动力中流动人口比重较高。省际流入人口行业流入量的行业差异、区域差异显著。东部地区制造业集中度不高,仍可以吸纳更多省际流入人口,而中、西部地区只有提高制造业规模才能吸纳更多省际流入人口。同2010年相比,2013年第三产业对流入人口的吸引力和依赖度相对上升,而第二产业吸引力和依赖度相对下降。进而,本文给出针对流动人口就业管理的几个政策建议。
[Abstract]:The size of China's migrant population has grown rapidly in recent years. The impact on regional economic development is also increasing. The management of floating population needs to be based on the structure of employment of floating population and its statistical data. The analysis of employment structure of floating population can be carried out by means of census and sample survey. The disadvantage of this kind of method is that it has low timeliness and high cost. Another analysis method is to construct the structure model of floating population employment. At present. There is no analysis model for the whole industry in the whole province of China. The individual industry model can not meet the needs of the government and the public in the analysis of the whole industry under the background of the current economic structure adjustment. This paper attempts to build a statistical model of the employment structure of the floating population. The gravity model is often used to estimate the migration flow. This paper uses the improved gravity model to calculate the industry inflow rate of the employment structure of the interprovincial inflow population and to reflect the different lines. The degree of dependence of the industry on the floating population. This paper estimates the industry inflow of China's inter-provincial inflow, analyzes the provincial distribution structure of the inflow population and the industry employment structure of the inflow population from the provincial and industry dimensions. The paper also defines the industry concentration in the provincial region. It is used to describe the industrial concentration of interprovincial inflow of people to employment, and to explore the relationship between the number of interprovincial industry inflow and the needs of industry employment. This paper also compares the gravity models of inter-provincial inflow of population between 2010 and 2013 in China. The results of this paper show that. The interprovincial inflow is mainly engaged in manufacturing, wholesale and retail, leasing and business services; And the proportion of floating population in the labor force of these three industries is relatively high. The regional differences of the industry inflow amount between provinces are significant. The manufacturing industry concentration in the eastern region is not high, so it can still absorb more interprovincial inflow population. In China, the western region can absorb more interprovincial inflow only by increasing the scale of manufacturing industry. Compared with 2010, the tertiary industry's attractiveness and dependence on the inflow of population increased relatively in 2013. The second industry is less attractive and dependent. Furthermore, this paper gives some policy suggestions for the employment management of floating population.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C92-05

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