近十年中国地级及以上城市新型城镇化水平空间格局演变及收敛分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 11:31

本文关键词：近十年中国地级及以上城市新型城镇化水平空间格局演变及收敛分析　出处：《西北师范大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新型城镇化是中国城镇化健康稳定发展的基本保证。各区域城镇化均衡发展是新型城镇化的重要内涵。自改革开放至今,我国的城镇化发展取得了巨大的成就,城镇化水平也被各级政府作为权衡社会经济发展水平的一个重要指标。新型城镇化强调以人为核心,在城镇化发展水平与经济增长水平互相协调的基础上,使得城镇化发展水平与城镇产业结构转型、城镇实际吸纳农村劳动力的能力、基础设施支撑能力、资源环境的承载能力等保持一致,强调“稳中求进”。因此,客观评价中国城市的新型城镇化发展水平,对提升新型城镇化水平和质量、优化新型城镇化格局、不断完善新型城镇化体制机制有重要意义。本文从新型城镇化的内涵入手,在反思传统用单一指标来度量城镇化水平的基础上,构建反映中国新型城镇化水平的综合指标体系,从经济城镇化、社会城镇化、生态城镇化以及城乡一体化四个方面,对新型城镇化的内涵进行了诠释;运用空间自相关对中国新型城镇化的综合水平以及经济城镇化水平、社会城镇化水平、生态城镇化水平和城乡一体化水平等近十年来的现状特征和发展规律做了分析;针对东西部城镇化发展呈现出的不平衡态势,运用空间计量模型做了相关的收敛分析,旨在为中国新型城镇化的区域均衡发展提供相关的政策性建议。本文基于2003-2012年我国286个地级及以上城市的统计数据,从经济、社会、生态和城乡一体化四个方面构建新型城镇化指标体系,运用熵值法评价各城市的新型城镇化水平,并结合ESDA-Arc GIS和空间计量模型,探讨了我国新型城镇化水平的空间格局及其β收敛特征。结果表明:(1)我国新型城镇化水平总体呈明显的上升趋势,东中西部差异明显,城镇化均值表现为东部全国中部西部,增长幅度表现为西部全国东部中部。(2)经济城镇化、社会城镇化、生态城镇化以及城乡一体化与新型城镇化综合水平在区域差异的空间分布上具有一致性,都呈现出“东高西低”的梯次变化规律,而且高水平地区空间分布与国家级和部分区域级城市群空间分布高度拟合。(3)我国的新型城镇化存在显著的空间集聚效应,表现出明显的“东高西低”的变化规律。(4)我国的新型城镇化发展存在β收敛,在增加空间因素后,城镇化水平的绝对收敛速度明显加快,稳健性也大大提高,从条件β收敛分析来看,人均GDP和非农人口比重2个因素是促进我国各区域城镇化均衡发展的关键因素。因此,加强经济增长与市民化的空间联动是实现中国新型城镇化均衡发展的关键因素。
[Abstract]:New urbanization is the basic guarantee for the healthy and stable development of urbanization in China. The balanced development of urbanization in various regions is an important connotation of new urbanization. Since the reform and opening up to date, China's urbanization development has made great achievements. The level of urbanization is also regarded as an important indicator to weigh the level of social and economic development by governments at all levels. The new type of urbanization emphasizes on the core of people and on the basis of the coordination between the level of urbanization development and the level of economic growth. The development level of urbanization is consistent with the transformation of urban industrial structure, the ability of absorbing rural labor force, the supporting capacity of infrastructure, the carrying capacity of resources and environment, etc. Objective evaluation of the development level of new urbanization in Chinese cities will improve the level and quality of new urbanization and optimize the pattern of new urbanization. It is of great significance to improve the mechanism of new urbanization system. This paper starts with the connotation of new urbanization, on the basis of reflecting on the traditional single index to measure the level of urbanization. This paper constructs a comprehensive index system reflecting the new urbanization level in China, and interprets the connotation of the new urbanization from four aspects: economic urbanization, social urbanization, ecological urbanization and urban-rural integration. Applying spatial autocorrelation to the comprehensive level of China's new urbanization, the level of economic urbanization, the level of social urbanization. Ecological urbanization level and urban-rural integration level in recent ten years such as the status quo and the development of the characteristics of the law to do an analysis; Aiming at the unbalanced situation of the urbanization in the east and the west, the convergence analysis is done by using the spatial econometric model. The purpose of this paper is to provide relevant policy recommendations for the regional balanced development of new urbanization in China. Based on the statistical data of 286 cities at prefectural level and above in China from 2003 to 2012, this paper focuses on the economic and social aspects. The new urbanization index system is constructed in four aspects of ecology and urban-rural integration. The new urbanization level of each city is evaluated by entropy method, and combined with ESDA-Arc GIS and spatial measurement model. The spatial pattern and the 尾 convergence characteristics of the new urbanization level in China are discussed. The results show that the new urbanization level in China has an obvious upward trend, and the difference between the east, the west and the west is obvious. The average value of urbanization is the central and western parts of the eastern part of the country, and the growth range is the economic urbanization and social urbanization in the central part of the western part of the country. Ecological urbanization, urban-rural integration and new urbanization have the same spatial distribution of regional differences, showing the "east high west low" ladder change law. Moreover, the spatial distribution of high-level areas is highly similar to the spatial distribution of national and regional urban agglomerations.) there is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in China's new urbanization. There is 尾 convergence in the development of new urbanization in China. The absolute convergence rate of urbanization level accelerates obviously after adding spatial factors. According to the conditional 尾 convergence analysis, the GDP per capita and the proportion of non-agricultural population are the key factors to promote the balanced development of urbanization in various regions of China. Strengthening the spatial linkage between economic growth and urbanization is the key factor to realize the balanced development of new urbanization in China.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.21

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