天津市人口老龄化对消费结构的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-10 02:05

本文关键词：天津市人口老龄化对消费结构的影响分析　出处：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前世界上大多数国家都在经历着人口老龄化,这对于各国而言都将是一个必然的过程,也是近年来众多国家所面临的一个共同话题。人口老龄化标准是指在社会中人口年龄中60岁及以上人口数量达到人口总数的10%,或者65岁及以上的人口数量达到人口总量的7%。2000年,根据第五次全国人口普查数据显示,我国已进入人口老龄化阶段。近几年在天津市经济持续发展的同时,人口老龄化的进程也在加快,人口老龄化对经济产生的影响和引起消费结构的变化以及老年人的晚年生活保障等一系列问题随之显现。人口老龄化问题,在产生负面影响的同时,必然也带来了其他方面的契机。首先,在阐述天津市人口老龄化问题形成的原因和现状的基础上,采用灰色预测方法和线性回归方法对天津市未来几年的人口发展趋势进行预测,预测结果显示,人口老龄化程度加重的趋势会持续存在,但是加深程度在减弱;其次,将天津市居民消费内容分为八大类,分别对天津市城镇居民和农村居民的消费现状和特征进行了描述性统计分析,在此基础上,采用灰色关联分析方法和偏最小二乘回归方法分析天津市人口老龄化对消费结构的影响,分析结果表明,受人口老龄化影响程度最深的消费内容是医疗保险类,顺次为文教娱乐服务类,食品类和衣着类等,经过对这两种方法进行统计检验均显示出具有较强的显著性,因此实证分析结论具有一定的可信度;最后,针对天津市人口老龄化特点,在如何抓好养老保障制度的落实,把握天津市老龄产业所带来的新的消费契机,实施"医养融合"、"文化养老"等方面提出建设性的意见。
[Abstract]:At present, most countries in the world are experiencing the aging of the population, which for the countries will be an inevitable process, is also a common topic in recent years. Many countries are facing the aging population standard refers to the social age population in the number of people aged 60 and older population reached 10% of the total, or the number of people aged 65 and over to the total population of 7%.2000 years, according to the fifth national census data show that China has entered the aging stage. In recent years, the sustainable development of economy in Tianjin at the same time, the population aging process is accelerating, a series of problems of population aging effects on the economy of and the change of consumption structure and the elderly security will appear. The problem of population aging, resulting in negative effects at the same time, must also bring other aspects of the first opportunity, Based on the reason and current situation of the aging population in Tianjin City, formed on the gray prediction method and linear regression method to predict the trend of population development in Tianjin city in the next few years, the forecasting results show that the aging of the population increasing trend will continue to exist, but enhance the degree in decline; secondly, the residents' consumption the city of Tianjin is divided into eight categories, respectively for urban residents and rural residents in Tianjin City, the consumption status and characteristics of the descriptive statistical analysis, on this basis, using the linear regression method of grey correlation analysis method and partial least square analysis of Tianjin City, the impact of population aging on consumption structure, the analysis results show that the content of consumption is affected by the degree of population aging is the most medical insurance, in order for education and entertainment services, food and clothing, through statistical tests of the two methods Showed a significantly stronger, so the empirical analysis has a certain credibility conclusion; finally, according to the characteristics of population aging in Tianjin, how to do a good job in the endowment insurance system implementation, grasp the Tianjin aging industry brought about by the new consumption opportunity, implementation of the medical support integration "," constructive views of culture pension and other aspects.

【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.1;D669.6

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